000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272112
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1945 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N84W TO 08N88W TO 
LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 09N99W TO 09N110W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS 
ANALYZED FROM 09N110W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 97W AND WITHIN 75 NM 
S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 92W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1034 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 
37N152W THROUGH 34N140W TO 16N110W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND N 
CENTRAL MEXICO IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS OFFSHORE 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 25N. THIS LOW PRES AREA WILL SHIFT 
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT 
AND THE WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FRESH N WINDS WILL BE 
CONFINED TO N OF 28N BY MON AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE 
PERIOD TUE AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE FORCED SOUTHWARD AND 
WEAKENED AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ENCROACHES UPON IT FROM THE 
NW. FRESH TRADE WINDS CURRENTLY LIE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 
THE ITCZ W OF 125W. THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES WILL SHRINK 
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TUE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO CHANGES IN THE 
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. 

GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ/MONSOON 
TROUGH AXIS ALONG 05-10N W OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A BROAD AREA OF 
LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. APPROXIMATELY 20-25 
KT OF E-NE SHEAR OVER THE 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 09N99W IS 
SKEWING CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LOW...WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FOUND WITHIN 150 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. CONDITIONS DO NOT 
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM 
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

$$
SCHAUER