000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270935
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAY 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N80W TO WEAKENING LOW PRES NEAR 
08.5N98W 1007 MB TO 06N105W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO 
ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 07N114W TO 07N124W TO BEYOND 03N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 108W AND 114W. 


...DISCUSSION...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1033 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 
35N143W THROUGH 30N129W TO 20N111W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THIS RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS PRODUCING 
STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA THAT ARE 
GENERATING N-NW SWELL OVER 8 FT OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 
24N. STRONG TO WINDS 25-30 KT LIE OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N 
OF 26N WHILE FRESH N-NW WINDS EXTEND ELSEWHERE OFF THE COAST N 
OF 24N. LOW PRES IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND THE 
WINDS OFF CALIFORNIA. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY. 

THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE FORCED SOUTHEASTWARD 
AND WEAKENED AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ENCROACHES UPON IT FROM 
THE NW. FRESH TRADE WINDS CURRENTLY LIE OVER CENTRAL WATERS 
PRIMARILY W OF 130W. THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES WILL SHRINK 
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MON EVENING IN RESPONSE TO CHANGES IN THE 
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. 

GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ/MONSOON 
TROUGH AXIS ALONG 05-10N W OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A BROAD AREA OF 
LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS SUPPORTING ACTIVE 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 98W AND 105W...BUT HAS DIMINISHED IN THE PAST 
FEW HOURS. CONVECTION AND MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING SUGGESTED 
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WERE CENTERED ALONG ABOUT 102W...A FEW 
DEGREES W OF THE APPARENT SURFACE LOW. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR 
FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER 
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF 
COAST BETWEEN 88W AND 96W. THIS CONVECTION EXTENDS INLAND INTO 
W NICARAGUA...WESTERN HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND MEXICO S OF 
18N. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR GUADALAJARA MEXICO EXTENDS 
A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE 
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE 
FORCED OFFSHORE BY AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE YUCATAN. 
THE CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS OVER THIS REGION DUE TO THE CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN.

$$
STRIPLING