000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270257
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 10N88W TO 
1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N96W TO 08N121W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS 
ANALYZED FROM 08N121W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WAS WITHIN 410 NM OF THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM AND 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1033 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 
35N148W THROUGH 30N125W TO 15N110W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THIS RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS PRODUCING 
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA THAT ARE GENERATING 
N-NW SWELL OVER 8 FT OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 24N. SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS FROM 3EUS AND 9HJF9 THIS EVENING CONTINUE TO 
INDICATE A RIBBON OF HIGHER SEAS EXISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE MERGING OF SOUTHERLY 
SWELL THAT WAS GENERATED EARLIER BY FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD 
WITH THIS N-NW SWELL. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS LIE 
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 27N WHILE FRESH N-NW WINDS 
EXTEND ELSEWHERE OFF THE COAST N OF 24N. LOW PRES IN THE 
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR 
SO...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFF CALIFORNIA. 
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE 
THROUGH MONDAY. 

THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE FORCED SOUTHEASTWARD 
AND WEAKENED AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ENCROACHES UPON IT FROM 
THE NW. FRESH TRADE WINDS CURRENTLY LIE OVER CENTRAL WATERS 
PRIMARILY W OF 135W. THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES WILL SHRINK 
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MON EVENING IN RESPONSE TO CHANGES IN THE 
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. 

GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ/MONSOON 
TROUGH AXIS ALONG 05-10N W OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A BROAD AREA OF 
LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION 
THAT IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. APPROXIMATELY 20-25 KT 
OF E-NE SHEAR OVER THE SURFACE LOW IS SKEWING THE CONVECTION TO 
THE WEST. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM OF COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICAN AND 
SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM 10N TO 17N. THIS CONVECTION EXTENDS INLAND 
INTO NW NICARAGUA...WESTERN HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND MEXICO S 
OF 18N. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR GUADALAJARA MEXICO 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE DIFFLUENCE 
GENERATED BY THIS UPPER RIDGE IS LIFTING MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR 
UPWARDS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE 
ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE 
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FORCED OFFSHORE BY AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING 
OVER THE YUCATAN. THE CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THIS REGION DUE TO THE CHANGE IN THE 
UPPER PATTERN.

$$
SCHAUER