000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAY 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE LAST ADVISORY WAS WRITTEN ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD THIS 
MORNING AT 8 AM PDT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION HAS DISSIPATED. AN OBSERVATION STATION NEAR 
19N104.5W...ON THE COAST BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND MANZANILLO 
MEXICO...REPORTED 20 KT W-NW WINDS AS RECENTLY AS 2000 UTC. 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THIS EVENING. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ENHANCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS 
PRIMARILY BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES TO SAYULITA AND INLAND TO THE 
FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. THIS WILL BE THE LAST 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION MENTIONING THE REMNANTS OF BUD. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N87W TO 1009 MB 
LOW PRES NEAR 08N95W TO 09N103W TO 08N121W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 08N121W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 390 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF 
THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE 
FUND BETWEEN 150 NM AND 300 NM SE QUADRANT OF LOW. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO LIES WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 107W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM WEAKENING 1033 MB HIGH PRES 
CENTERED NEAR 35N148W TO AROUND 17N110W. THE PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS 
PRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N-NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST 
OF CALIFORNIA THAT ARE GENERATING N-NW SWELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA N OF 24N. SHIP OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED 
A RIBBON OF HIGHER SEAS EXISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA....WITH SEAS TO AT LEAST 11 FT...MOST LIKELY DUE TO 
THE MERGING OF SOUTHERLY SWELL THAT WAS GENERATED EARLIER BY 
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD WITH THIS N-NW SWELL. FRESH TO STRONG N-NW 
WINDS EXTEND OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL. LOW PRES IN 
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR 
SO...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFF CALIFORNIA. 
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE 
THROUGH SUNDAY. 

THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE FORCED SOUTHEASTWARD 
AND WEAKENED AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ENCROACHES UPON IT FROM 
THE NW. FRESH TRADE WINDS CURRENTLY LIE OVER CENTRAL WATERS 
PRIMARILY W OF 130W. THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES WILL SHRINK 
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH MON AFTERNOON AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH 
WEAKENS. 

GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ/MONSOON 
TROUGH AXIS ALONG 05-10N W OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A BROAD AREA OF 
LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION 
THAT IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. APPROXIMATELY 20-25 KT 
OF E-NE SHEAR OVER THE SURFACE LOW IS SKEWING THE CONVECTION TO 
THE WEST. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

$$
SCHAUER