000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261000
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAY 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD WAS ESTIMATED NEAR 20.3N 105.7W 1006 MB 
AT 0900 UTC MAY 26 MOVING N OR 350 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. DRY AIR AND MODERATE SW WIND 
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS 
TAKEN ITS TOLL ON BUD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED 
NEAR THE CENTER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 
0406 UTC ASCAT PASS ACROSS THE SYSTEM SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER 
WAS EITHER INLAND OR ALONG THE COAST OF THE STATE OF JALISCO. 
BUD THEREFORE APPEARS TO BE DYING A RAPID DEATH...AND IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER...ALONG 
THE COAST AS IT DRIFTS N. SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE 
ADVISORY WTPZ22/TCMEP2 KNHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON TROPICAL 
STORM BUD.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 08.5N75W TO DEVELOPING 
LOW PRES NEAR 08N94.5W 1010 MB TO 07N98W THEN BREAKS FROM REST 
OF TROUGH. TROUGH RESUMES FROM 13N101W TO 10N107W TO 08N120W 
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 05N134W TO 
BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED 
FROM 05N TO COAST BETWEEN 82W AND 87W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03.5N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 93W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LOW PRES OVER SW UNITED STATES IS LIFTING NE INTO THE 
CENTRAL ROCKIES...AHEAD OF A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
DIGGING SE ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS MAINTAINING FRESH 
TO STRONG NW TO N FLOW DOWN THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND 
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WINDS TO 20 KT REACHING AS FAR 
SOUTH AS 27.5N E OF 124W. SEAS THERE WERE RUNNING 8 TO 10 FT IN 
NW SWELL. A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 36.5N148W WILL 
NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MAINTAINING FRESH 
TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 130W...AND N OF 24N 
BETWEEN 120W AND THE BAJA COAST. THE SWELL WILL DECAY HOWEVER TO 
LESS THAN 8 FT OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THE HIGH PRES TO 
THE NW OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT SE THIS WEEKEND...MAINTAINING 
FRESH NW FLOW OFF THE BAJA COAST THROUGH LATE SUN.

E OF 100W...LOW TO MID LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS CONTINUE TO 
ADD CREDENCE TO THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODEL INITIALIZATIONS 
DEPICTING LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. 
A 0400 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY 
DEVELOPING NEAR  08N94.5W WITHIN THIS BROADER CIRCULATION. THE 
PRES GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK AND NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR 
SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS DEVELOPING LOW THROUGH 48 HOURS... 
BUT SPORADIC MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST 
DUE TO VERY HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CONTINUING MID LEVEL 
INSTABILITY.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ASCAT DATA FROM 0406 UTC SHOWED FRESH TO 
STRONG SW FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 29N. THE GRADIENT 
STILL REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES OVER THE PACIFIC AND 
DEEP LOW PRES OVER THE SW UNITED STATES EXITING TO THE NE...WITH 
A TROUGH TRAILING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT 
NE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OUT OF THE NW DOWN THE LENGTH 
OF THE GULF BY 42 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS SE.

$$
STRIPLING