000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260236
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM BUD IS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 105.6W AT 26/0300 UTC 
MOVING N AT 6 KT. BUD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AND MAX SUSTAINED 
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRES HAS RISEN TO 1000 MB. ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
NOTED CURRENTLY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 120 NM TO THE SOUTH 
OF THE CENTER OF BUD...AS DRY AND STABLE AIR WRAPS INTO THE 
STORM ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY ON 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND BUD...TO INCLUDE OVER COASTAL AREAS. AN 
OVERNIGHT RESURGENCE IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER DUE TO DRAINAGE 
IMPACTS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ADJACENT 
COASTAL AREAS BEFORE MORNING. SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE 
ADVISORY WTPZ22/TCMEP2 KNHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON TROPICAL 
STORM BUD.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 12N89W TO 
06N96W...THEN RESUMES FROM 16N106W TO 11N110W TO 08N120W. ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08120W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 
92W AND 97W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LOW PRES OVER SW UNITED STATES IS LIFTING NE INTO THE 
CENTRAL ROCKIES...AHEAD OF A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
DIGGING SE INTO CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO 
STRONG NW TO N FLOW DOWN THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND 
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WINDS TO 20 KT REACHING AS FAR 
SOUTH AS 25N W OF 118W. A JASON1 PASS AT 1700 UTC SHOWED SE OF 8 
TO 11 FT AS FAR S AS 20N IN THE SAME AREA...DUE TO NW SWELL. 
1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 36N149W WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES ACROSS MUCH 
OF THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 130W...AND N OF 20N BETWEEN 130W AND 
THE BAJA COAST. THE SWELL WILL DECAY HOWEVER TO LESS THAN 8 FT 
OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THE HIGH PRES TO THE NW OF THE 
AREA WILL SHIFT SE THIS WEEKEND...MAINTAINING FRESH NW FLOW OFF 
THE BAJA COAST THROUGH LATE SUN.

E OF 100W...LOW TO MID LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS CONTINUE TO 
ADD CREDENCE TO GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODEL INITIALIZATIONS DEPICTING 
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. GLOBAL MODEL 
CONSENSUS ALSO IN BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A WEAK SURFACE LOW 
FORMING IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF 10N95W. THE PRES GRADIENT 
REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK AND NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS ARE 
EXPECTED WITH THIS DEVELOPING THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT SPORADIC 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST DUE TO VERY 
HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CONTINUING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 17 UTC SHOWED FRESH 
TO STRONG SW FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 29N. THE GRADIENT 
STILL REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES OVER THE PACIFIC AND 
DEEP LOW PRES OVER THE SW UNITED STATES EXITING TO THE NE WITH A 
TRAILING TROUGH DOWN THE SPINE OF THE GULF. THE WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NE. WINDS WILL 
INCREASE TO 20 KT OUT OF THE NW DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF BY 
48 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS SE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN