000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252207
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE BUD IS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 105.5W AT 25/2100 UTC MOVING 
N AT 6 KT. BUD IS WEAKENING...AND MAX SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE 
DIMINISHED 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES HAS 
RISEN TO 995 MB. ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 150 NM OF BUD CURRENTLY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS DRY AND 
STABLE AIR WRAPS INTO THE STORM ENVIRONMENT. DESPITE THE 
WEAKENING TREND...PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED 
BRINGING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COASTAL AREAS 
OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA...JALISCO...AND MICHOACAN. 
SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY WTPZ22/TCMEP2 KNHC FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS ON HURRICANE BUD.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 11N90W TO 07N96W...THEN 
RESUMES FROM 16N106W TO 08N120W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08120W 
TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
60 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 96W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LOW PRES OVER SW UNITED STATES IS LIFTING NE INTO THE 
CENTRAL ROCKIES...AHEAD OF A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
DIGGING SE INTO CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO 
STRONG NW TO N FLOW DOWN THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND 
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WINDS TO 20 KT REACHING AS FAR 
SOUTH AS 25N W OF 118W. A JASON1 PASS AT 1700 UTC SHOWED SE OF 8 
TO 11 FT AS FAR S AS 20N IN THE SAME AREA...DUE TO NW SWELL. 
1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 36N149W WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES ACROSS MUCH 
OF THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 130W...AND N OF 20N BETWEEN 130W AND 
THE BAJA COAST. THE SWELL WILL DECAY HOWEVER TO LESS THAN 8 FT 
OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...E OF 110W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION PERSIST AS SW FLOW INCREASES SLIGHT TO 10 TO 15 KT IN 
AN AREA OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH 
CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ALONG 90W ADDING TO THE 
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN