000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250954
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAY 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 105.6W AS OF 25/0900 UTC 
MOVING NNE AT 7 KT. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
115 KT...AND ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 964 MB. NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 120 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
180 NM OF BUD. AN EYE FEATURE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLIER 
TONIGHT IS NO LONGER EVIDENT...WITH THE CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED 
WITHIN NE PORTIONS OF A CDO PATTERN. BUD SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD 
AND GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CENTER 
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. LARGE SWELL FROM THE HURRICANE 
CONTINUE TO BATTER THE COAST OF MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG THE 
COASTAL MOUNTAINS IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF JALISCO...COLIMA AND 
MICHOACAN SHOULD EXPECT RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH BUD TO 
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL LEADING TO LANDSLIDES ALONG STEEP TERRAIN AS 
BUD APPROACHES. SEE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY 
WTPZ22/TCMEP2 KNHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON HURRICANE BUD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N92W TO 10N100W...WHERE IT HAS BROKEN 
FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH RESUMES NEAR 14N104W TO 
09.5N111W TO 06.5123W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING 
ON TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 99W. 

...DISCUSSION...
1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 38N147W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SE 
TO NEAR 21N120W. BROAD LOW PRES IS INLAND NEVADA AND THE DESERT 
SW OF THE U.S. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE 
FEATURES IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE AREA OFF THE 
COAST OF CALIFORNIA....WITH FRESH N TO NELY WINDS 20 TO 25 KT 
WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA NW OF LINE 30N118W TO 
28N118W TO 16N140W. SEAS THERE WERE 8 TO 13 FT IN MIXED N AND NW 
SWELL. NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST IN THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS. AN 0428 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED SWLY WINDS 20 TO 25 
KT IN THE FAR N PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 28.5N.  
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE 
DIMINISHING. 
 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE 
E PORTIONS OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 
99W. A WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MIGRATING WESTWARD 
THROUGH THIS AREA AND IS AIDING THE CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE W OF 
115W...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS MINIMAL AND NO ORGANIZED 
CONVECTION IS NOTED. 

$$
STRIPLING