000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250301
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAY 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE BUD AT 17.1N 105.9W AS OF 25/0300 UTC MOVING NNE AT 9 
KT. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT...AND 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 960 MB. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 
90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF 
BUD. BUD IS LOOKING VERY ORGANIZED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOW A BROAD WELL DEFINED EYE AND IS NEAR SYMMETRICAL IN 
APPEARANCE. BUD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FURTHER 
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES ON A GENERAL NNE TRACK. 
THE CENTER OF BUD IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 
OR WEST OF MANZANILLO WITHIN 36 HOURS. LARGE SWELL FROM THE 
HURRICANE ARE NOW REACHING THE COAST. INTERESTS ALONG THE 
COASTAL MOUNTAINS IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF JALISCO AND COLIMA 
SHOULD BE ADVISED OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS BUD 
APPROACHES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SEE LATEST TROPICAL 
CYCLONE ADVISORY WTPZ22/TCMEP2 KNHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON 
HURRICANE BUD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM PANAMA AT 09N79W TO 08N85W TO 11N92W. 
MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES AGAIN FROM 14N108W TO 07N125W. ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 07N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS N OF 08N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W.

...DISCUSSION...
1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 37N148W. A 992 MB LOW IS INLAND 
OVER S NEVADA NEAR 36N115W. THE TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE FEATURES IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS N 
OF THE AREA OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. 20 TO 25 KT WINDS AND 
SEAS TO 13 FT ARE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 25N 
BETWEEN 118W AND 130W. NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST IN THIS AREA 
FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  
 
FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WHILE NO RECENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW 
ANY SIGN OF FRESH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...GLOBAL MODELS 
INITIALIZE WITH 20 KT SW TO W FLOW N OF 30N AND MAINTAINS IT 
THROUGH LATE FRI...UNTIL THE DEEP LOW PRES OVER S NEVADA LIFTS 
OUT. 

WEAK CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 117W 
AND 122W. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MODEST AT BEST TO 
SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION...GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS SHOW A WEAK 
MID LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATING WESTWARD IN THIS AREA THAT IS LIKELY 
AIDING THE CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE W OF 115W...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE 
REMAINS MINIMAL AND NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOTED. 

E OF 100W...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH AND 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MORE NUMEROUS...NAMELY N OF 02N E OF 
95W. TOGA BUOY AND ASCAT DATA SHOW LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO BE 
MINIMAL. WHILE MODERATE NE TO E FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS ALSO DO 
NOT OFFER MUCH SUPPORT TO THE UNSTABLE WEATHER...GOES HIGH 
DENSITY WINDS AGAIN SHOW A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE MID 
LEVELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND ECMWF INITIALIZATIONS. 
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS W TO ABOUT 100W BY LATE SAT. 

$$
FORMOSA