000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230402
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM BUD IS CENTERED NEAR 12.0N 105.0W AT 23/0300 UTC 
...MOVING NW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 
KT. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SYSTEM THAT IS
BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL WITH TIME AS EVIDENT BY THE MORE
CURVED SHAPED OF ITS OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN WITH BANDING FEATURES
BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AS WELL. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER THAT
WAS EXPOSED DURING THE DAY HAS SINCE MOVED UNDERNEATH OF 
THE E EDGE OF BUD. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION
IS VERY DEEP WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE W SEMICIRCLE 
WHERE NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE AND S QUADRANTS...AND ALSO 
FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W.

LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS BUD SLOWLY INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE NEXT 
48 HRS BUT REMAIN AS A TROPICAL STORM. IT IS FORECAST TO 
RECURVE TO THE NE BY EARLY THU NIGHT AS IT AIMS TOWARDS
THE THE COAST OF MEXICO. SEE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY 
WTPZ22/TCMEP2 KNHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON TROPICAL STORM BUD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...AN ACTIVE 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 06N87W TO 11N97W WHERE IT 
ENDS. IT RESUMES FROM 10N108W TO 06N125W. THE ITCZ AXIS
THEN EXTENDS FROM 06N125W TO BEYOND THE AREA AT 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 111W-115W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A WEAK UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 15N88W W TO OVER 
TROPICAL STORM BUD AND NW TO 19N124W. BUD IS CURRENTLY 
UNDER...AND MOVING TOWARDS THE MORE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT PORTION 
OF THE THE RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE IT WITH MORE OF 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT FOR IT TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 
24-48 HRS. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION 
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH. ELSEWHERE WATER
VAPOR SHOWS MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING FOR STABLE 
LOW-LEVEL TO SURFACE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AS NOTED BY BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS N OF 10N AND W OF 110W.

A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH NW OF THE 
AREA AT 34N1434 SE TO 24N132W AND TO 21N119W. A TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING GALE FORCE WINDS JUST N OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS MOMENTUM 
WILL CARRY SWD INTO THE AREA AS NW TO N 20-25 KT IN ABOUT 24 HRS 
N OF 26N BETWEEN 118W AND 127W WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. SEAS BUILD 
TO 14 FT THERE IN ABOUT 48 HRS.

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CHIVELAS PASS IS SUPPORTING 
20-30 KT N TO NE WINDS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
AS WAS REVEALED IN AN 1808 UTC OSCAT PASS FROM TUE AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT...AND TO 
LESS THAN 20 KT BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT JUST 
INLAND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC RELAXES.

$$
AGUIRRE