000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140950
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAY 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A LOW PRES...ANALYZED 1008 ON THE 0600 UTC SURFACE MAP IS 
LOCATED NEAR 10.5N105.5W. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED 
OVERNIGHT NEAR THE CENTER WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IN A 
BAND WITHIN AROUND 75 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL 
WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS 
RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
COULD FORM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES 
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 06N90W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
10.5N105.5W 1008 MB...THEN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N108W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 07.5119W 1010 MB TO BEYOND 03N140W. OUTSIDE OF THE 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEMS...SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF THE TROUGH TO 10N 
BETWEEN 84W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO 
NOTED S OF THE TROUGH TO 02N BETWEEN 87W AND 99W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N E OF 87W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
120 NM NW QUADRANT OF LOW PRES CENTER AT 07.5N119W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...WELL-DEFINED DEEP LAYER CYCLONE AT 39N125W CONTINUES TO 
MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE N 
WATERS AHEAD OF A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 
147W/148W. S AND SW WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS ADVECTING 
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS INTO THE W WATERS 
PARTICULARLY W OF 130W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS 
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE 
FORECAST REGION E OF 110W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED 
WITH FEATURE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION 
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND NEAR THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW PRES 
CENTERS.  

AT LOWER LEVELS...A 1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N130W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE N WATERS. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
HIGH AND A TROUGH ALONG WESTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING FRESH TO 
STRONG NW BREEZE JUST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE MOST RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES ALONG WITH FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOWED NW 
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW AND N OF 
AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...EXPECT WINDS TO 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OFFSHORE OF MUCH OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. LOOK FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 9 
FT TODAY. 

TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS FORCED 
STRONG N WINDS ACROSS CHIVELA PASS AND THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THE 0310 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS 
SURPRISINGLY REVEALED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA AND A 
GALE WARNING WAS IMMEDIATELY ISSUED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 
BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN AT 20 TO 30 KT 
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATE TUE. 

FRESH ELY WINDS OVER GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE 
TODAY AS WEAK LOW PRES JUST W OF GULF SHIFT W AWAY FROM THE AREA.

$$
GR