000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080324
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAY 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 05N77W TO 09N95W TO 06N110W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N110W TO 
09N119W THEN RESUMES FROM 06N124W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02.5N TO 04.5N BETWEEN 
86W AND 91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 06N96W TO 05N101W TO 09N104W...AND ALSO FROM 10N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 104W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N 
OF THE ITCZ TO 07N W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS 
REACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA THROUGH 29N120W TO 24N128W. SW FLOW WITH WIND MAXIMA 
OF 70-90 KT IS TRANSPORTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE 
TROPICS ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA TO ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO AND INTO W 
TEXAS. OTHERWISE MAINLY BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...1030 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N138W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE SE THROUGH 
25N125W TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND LOWER PRES ALONG CALIFORNIA AND THE 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF 
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 123W AND 132W...AS 
CAPTURED BY A RECENT EXPERIMENTAL OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THIS 
WEATHER PATTERN AND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WED. 
MEANWHILE A BELT OF FRESH NE TRADES PREVAILS ON THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 06N TO 20N W OF 130W...AND ALSO FROM 
20N TO 26N W OF 132W. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 
LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 HOURS.

A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES FROM 11N118W TO 05N123W AS SEEN BY AN 
AFTERNOON ASCAT PASS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 07N 
WITHIN 60-75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL 
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE W DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE WITH SEAS OF 7 FT OR LESS. 
THESE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 
MID-WEEK.

$$
LEWITSKY