000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040813
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAY 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N86W 05N90W TO LOW PRES 05N114W 1010 
MB. THE ITCZ FROM 05N114W TO 00N1325W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 70 NM S OF AXIS FROM 89W-94W AND WITHIN 
180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 95N-105N AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS FROM 110W-116W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA IS N OF 27N W OF 130W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 
AXIS FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 18N133W. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 110W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A 
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SE OF THE RIDGE 
CENTERED NEAR 21N115W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO 
LIFT NE INTO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS 
MEXICO.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
NEAR 8N117W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-115W.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. BROKEN/OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 115W. SURFACE 
WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA HOWEVER THE RIDGE 
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOME SAT AND TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 
20 KT FROM 5N-11W W OF 120W. NE WINDS TO 20 KT WILL ALSO 
INCREASE N OF AROUND 27N W OF 125W BY THIS EVENING.

$$
DGS