000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020305
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 2 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N86W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N97.5W 
1007 MB TO 06N103W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 07N125W THEN RESUMES FROM 04N132W TO 
02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N84W TO 04N92W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 60-240 NM IN THE SE AND S 
QUADRANTS OF THE LOW AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 04N114W TO 09N123W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FAR NW MEXICO NEAR 
32N114W TO A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 23N123W...CONTINUING SW-W TO NEAR 
20N135W. SW-W WIND FLOW OF 90-110 KT S OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS 
TRANSPORTING MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS TO ACROSS 
NORTHERN MEXICO S OF 27N. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS NEAR 28N138W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS NEAR 08N118W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
SE MEXICO NEAR 16N97W TO NEAR 08N96W. MAINLY SW-W FLOW ALOFT 
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...1029 MB HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED NW OF THE AREA 
NEAR 33N146W. A WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THIS HIGH INTO 
THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 32N140W...TERMINATING NEAR 16N110W. A 
WEAKENING COLD FRONT REACHES FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 
33N117W TO 31N128W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS W OF A LINE 
FROM 30N125W TO 15N140W BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND FRONT RESULTING IN 
FRESH NE WINDS AS INDICATED BY AN EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER 
PASS...ALONG WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. THE 
FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WHILE DISSIPATING TONIGHT AND WILL 
HELP TO INDUCE A BRIEF EPISODE OF FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 
FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N THROUGH WED MORNING.

OTHERWISE...SEAS TO 8 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL ALONG WITH 
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 
HALF OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BY 
48 HOURS...AN AREA OF 8 FT CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL 
COVER THE AREA S OF 08N BETWEEN 100W AND 128W WITH WEATHER 
CONDITIONS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ELSEWHERE.

$$
LEWITSKY