000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N97W 1010 
MB TO 07N101W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 07N101W TO 07N115W TO 08N124W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 79W AND 
88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 120 NM AND 240 NM 
IN THE SE AND S QUADRANTS OF THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120-180 NM S OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 114W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FAR NW MEXICO NEAR 
32N114W TO A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 23N125W...CONTINUING SW-W TO NEAR 
22N138W. SW-W WIND FLOW OF 90-110 KT S OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS 
TRANSPORTING MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS TO ACROSS 
NORTHERN MEXICO S OF 28N. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS NEAR 31N140W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS NEAR 08N117W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
SE MEXICO NEAR 16N97W TO NEAR 07N76W. MAINLY SW-W FLOW ALOFT 
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...1029 MB HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED NW OF THE AREA 
NEAR 35N143W. A WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THIS HIGH INTO 
THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 32N139W...TERMINATING NEAR 18N110W. A 
DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N118W TO 23N125W WITH 
NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION NOTED. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS NW 
OF A LINE FROM 30N125W TO 14N140W BETWEEN THE HIGH AND TROUGH 
RESULTING IN FRESH NE WINDS AS INDICATED BY A RECENT ASCAT 
SCATTEROMETER PASS...ALONG WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW 
SWELL. THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH A BRIEF EPISODE OF 
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA N OF 30N THROUGH WED MORNING.

OTHERWISE...SEAS TO 8 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL ALONG WITH 
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 
HALF OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BY 
48 HOURS...AN AREA OF 8 FT CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL 
COVER THE AREA S OF 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 130W WITH WEATHER 
CONDITIONS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ELSEWHERE.

$$
LEWITSKY