000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251536
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED APR 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ AXIS FROM 06N88W TO 05N96W 06N106W TO 10101 MB LOW PRES AT 
04N128W TO 03N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CUT OFF CYCLONE AT 31N128W HAS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
SWEEP THROUGH WESTERN SIDE OF BASIN FROM 30N128W TO 12N140W.  
VERY DRY AIR MASS ANYWHERE W OF TROUGH WHILE ABUNDANT MOISTURE 
RIDES WEAKENING 105 KT JET CORE WELL AHEAD OF TROUGH...MORE LIKE 
IN THE BACK SIDE OF DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  SHORT WAVE 
NOW ON W SIDE OF CYCLONE APPROACHES NW CORNER OF BASIN BRINGING 
A SECOND BURST OF ENERGY INTO REGION.  PRESENT STATIONARY FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDS FROM 32N123W TO 18N131W  
WILL BE THEN PUSHED FURTHER E BY INCOMING SHORT WAVE.  UPPER 
PATTERN HAS SHARP RIDGE ALONG 109W N OF 10N WITH BROAD WEAK 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO TO 08N106W.  MODERATE 
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT S OF 08N FROM 100W TO 120W ENHANCES 
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ.

...AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
WEAKENING 1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRES AT 30N130W ASSOCIATED WITH 
DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE ALOFT EXPECTED TO IMPART PUSH TO STATIONARY 
FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE.  FRESH N TO NW BREEZE BRINGS LARGE LONG 
PERIOD SWELL 12-15 FT INTO NW PORTION OF BASIN SPREADING S AS 
THEY DECAY.  LOW PRES HAS SHORT LIFE AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT 
SHIFTS NE ALLOWING BROAD HIGH PRES CENTER TO MOVE E JUST N OF 
32N.  ADVECTED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH REINVIGORATED FRONT...AND 
ITS ATTENDANT FRESH WINDS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

LOW PRES 1010 MB AT 04N129W CARRIES A VERY WEAK TROUGH TO 
10N123W WHICH FORCES FRESH NE BREEZE AHEAD OF ITS SLOW W DRIFT.

REBUILDING OF RIDGE BEHIND ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT JUST N OF 
32N EXPECTED TO PROMPT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AGAINST COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE THU AND FRI.   

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES OVER N GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCES 
MODERATE NELY WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH CHIVELA PASS INTO GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.  ALTHOUGH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC LAST NIGHT...DRAINAGE FLOW S MAINTAINS A STRONG 
WIND.  HI PRES SHIFTS E...WINDS OVER SW GULF OF MEXICO VEER SE 
...AND DIMINISH WIND FLOW INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BELOW 20 KT 
THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EASTERN MOVE OF HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO 
HAS INCREASED PRES GRADIENT OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA...WHICH IN TURN INCREASED FLOW THROUGH GAPS ACROSS 
NICARAGUA.  FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THU.

GULF OF PANAMA...PRES GRADIENT MENTIONED ABOVE ALSO INCREASED 
STRONG NLY WINDS THROUGH GULF OF PANAMA.  WINDS EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THU. 

$$
WALLY BARNES