000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241558
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE APR 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTEND FROM 05N77W TO 04N82W THEN ITCZ AXIS FROM 
05N96W TO 06N116W TO LOW PRES AT 04N124W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 105 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 105W 
TO 124W. 

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CUT OFF CYCLONE CENTERED AT 32N133W WITH TROUGH ALOFT 
TO 15N140W.  CYCLONE ADVECTS ABUNDANT MOISTURE RIDING ON 130 KT 
SW JET CORE ON SE QUADRANT AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO NW 
CORNER OF BASIN WITH 145 KT N JETSTREAM ON W QUADRANT OF CENTER.
TROUGH SUPPORTS COLD FRONT DISCUSSED BELOW.  BROAD DOWNSTREAM 
RIDGE COMBINES WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO WEAK DEVELOPING CYCLONE AT 06N115W TO FORM OMEGA 
BLOCK WITH BROAD RIDGE ALOFT ALONG 112W N OF 13N.  LARGE AREA OF 
MOISTURE ALOFT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN MEXICO.  

WEAK TO MODERATE DIFFLUENCE JUST W OF DEVELOPING CYCLONE AT 
06N115W ENHANCES CONVECTION NEAR SURFACE LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN 
ITCZ AT 04N124W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 115W TO LOW PRES AT 124W.  WEAK 
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES TO 12N120W INCREASING NE 
TRADES TO A FRESH BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WED.  LOW PRES 
WEAKENS LATE WED AND THU DIMINISHING WINDS W OF TROUGH TO A 
MODERATE BREEZE. 

...ELSEWHERE AT LOWER LEVELS...
WEAKENING 1016 MB HIGH PRES CENTER AT 25N120W FORCED E INCOMING 
BY COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N125W TO 19N140W.  FRONT WEAKENS 
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFT NE WED AND STALLS ALONG 122W N OF 
25N.  NEW AND STRONGER HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NW CORNER OF BASIN 
AND BRINGS FRESH TO STRONG N-NW BREEZE ALONG SOUTHERN AND BAJA 
CALIFORNIA COASTS.  NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS N OF 
AREA SPREAD SE ACROSS NW CORNER OF BASIN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 
12-16 FT N OF 25N W OF 130W THROUGH WED THEN BEGIN SUBSIDING THU.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES OVER WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
FORCES STRONG NLY WINDS ACROSS CHIVELAS PASS IN MEXICO RESULTING 
IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  GALE FORCE 
WINDS EXTENDING S-SW TO NEAR 14N.  PRESENT WARNING HAS BEEN 
VERIFIED BY SAT WINDS AND SHIP REPORTS.  GALES EXPECTED TO  
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS 
E INTO NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EASTERN MIGRATION OF HIGH PRES CENTER OVER 
GULF OF MEXICO INCREASES GRADIENT OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA YIELDING FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS THROUGH GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO.  WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

GULF OF PANAMA...LIKEWISE GULF OF PANAMA EXPECTED TO ALLOW 
INCREASED FRESH NE WINDS TO FUNNEL THROUGH JUST S OF CANAL N OF 
05N.  CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO AMELIORATE LATE THU. 

$$
WALLY BARNES