000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192127
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU APR 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS IS FROM 07N115W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 103W AND 
110W...AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 114W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N138W. A COLD FRONT FURTHER W IS 
ADVANCING TOWARDS THE DISCUSSION AREA. COLD FRONT WILL REACH 
30N140W ON SAT NIGHT...AND WILL EXTEND FROM 30N130W TO BEYOND 
24N140W ON MONDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS. 20 KT WINDS AND 10 FT 
SWELL WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA WILL HAVE A RATHER LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT. 

A NOTABLE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A GALE 
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO START SAT NIGHT. LATEST GFS MODEL SHOWS 
GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUE MORNING. A SUSTAINED 
PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 12-13 FT 
DOWNSTREAM OF TEHUANTEPEC MON AND TUE.

$$
FORMOSA