000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161521
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN APR 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N107W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

NEARLY STATIONARY 1027 MB HIGH PRES RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 
30N133W. LOW PRES OVER INTERIOR MEXICO IS ENHANCING NW WINDS IN 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. COMPOSITE 
SCATTEROMETER SHOWS N-NW WINDS 20 KT OR LESS N OF 24N E OF 122W. 
BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS IS LOCATED S OF 
THE RIDGE WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS EVIDENT FROM SCATTEROMETER DATA 
FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 120W. SEA HEIGHTS ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING 
ACROSS THE REGION. AN AREA OF 9-11 FT SEAS IS LOCATED SW OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA FROM 18N TO 26N...AND ANOTHER AREA OF 9-11 FT SEAS IS 
LOCATED IN THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 07N TO 14N W OF 130W.

EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR 
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HIGH PRES RIDGE NEAR 30N133W WILL REMAIN 
NEARLY STATIONARY AND DEFLECT A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WELL N OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW PRES OVER MEXICO WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY 
AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER ENTIRE NE PORTION. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADEWINDS WILL CONTINUE S OF 20N W OF 130W...WITH SEAS SLOWLY 
SUBSIDING TO 8-9 FT BY TUE.

A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST 
OF CALIFORNIA TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT N OF 
30N. NNW SWELL TO 9 FT AND NLY WINDS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED N 
OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W BY WED MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TUE NIGHT FROM HIGH PRES OVER INTERIOR MEXICO
AND LOW PRES IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SW OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

$$
MUNDELL




000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161521
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN APR 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N107W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

NEARLY STATIONARY 1027 MB HIGH PRES RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 
30N133W. LOW PRES OVER INTERIOR MEXICO IS ENHANCING NW WINDS IN 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. COMPOSITE 
SCATTEROMETER SHOWS N-NW WINDS 20 KT OR LESS N OF 24N E OF 122W. 
BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS IS LOCATED S OF 
THE RIDGE WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS EVIDENT FROM SCATTEROMETER DATA 
FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 120W. SEA HEIGHTS ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING 
ACROSS THE REGION. AN AREA OF 9-11 FT SEAS IS LOCATED SW OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA FROM 18N TO 26N...AND ANOTHER AREA OF 9-11 FT SEAS IS 
LOCATED IN THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 07N TO 14N W OF 130W.

EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR 
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HIGH PRES RIDGE NEAR 30N133W WILL REMAIN 
NEARLY STATIONARY AND DEFLECT A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WELL N OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW PRES OVER MEXICO WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY 
AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER ENTIRE NE PORTION. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADEWINDS WILL CONTINUE S OF 20N W OF 130W...WITH SEAS SLOWLY 
SUBSIDING TO 8-9 FT BY TUE.

A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST 
OF CALIFORNIA TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT N OF 
30N. NNW SWELL TO 9 FT AND NLY WINDS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED N 
OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W BY WED MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TUE NIGHT FROM HIGH PRES OVER INTERIOR MEXICO
AND LOW PRES IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SW OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

$$
MUNDELL