000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN APR 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N109W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS HAS BECOME BETTER 
ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS. SCATTEROMETER 
DATA SHOWS BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE HAVE INCREASED 
SINCE YESTERDAY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADE WINDS IS LOCATED S OF A 1030 MB HIGH NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
31N129W. THE HIGH IS ANCHORING A STUBBORN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT 
EXTENDS E-NE FROM 26N150W TO 31N133W TO 40N125W. MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATES A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT 
AND MON WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. AS 
A RESULT...THE ONLY EXPECTED EFFECT WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 
NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE 
NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID- 
WEEK WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS REMAINING GENERALLY S 
OF 20N AND W OF 130W. MODERATE E-NE WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

$$
MUNDELL