000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140305
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT APR 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N91W TO 06N110W TO 05N125W TO 03N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 116W AND 138W. 

...DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N117W TO 25N129W DISSIPATING TO 
25N136W. PRECEDING THE FRONT IS SOME FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE 
CONDITIONS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FRESH TO 
STRONG SW BREEZE IS AFFECTING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTH OF 
29N THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY 
LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL AFFECTING THE NORTH PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSIONS AREA. SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT ARE OVER THE NW PORTION OF 
THE AREA DUE IN PART TO A LARGE UPWIND FETCH OF NW WINDS ON THE 
WEST SIDE OF A SURFACE CYCLONE N OF THE AREA AND THE ABOVE 
FRONT. THIS LARGE SWELL WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD BAJA 
CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT DAY BUT WILL NOT EXTEND SOUTH OF ABOUT 
22N. BY SUNDAY...THIS NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE 
ECWMF AND UKMET-BASED WAVEWATCH MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE 
AGGRESSIVE IN MORE QUICKLY BRINGING THROUGH AND MAINTAINING THE 
12 FOOT AND HIGHER SEAS THAN THE GFS TODAY AND TOMORROW MORNING. 
AS SEAS DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE GFS MAINTAINS 
THE SEAS SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE 
TYPICAL HIGH BIAS OF THE GFS FOR STEADY STATE AND DIMINISHING 
SEAS...THE FORECAST IS A BIT ABOVE THE GFS-BASED WAVEWATCH TODAY 
BUT BELOW IT AFTERWORDS.  

NE TRADEWINDS OF A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ARE OCCURRING W OF 
120W BETWEEN 05N AND 22N ALONG WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT.  THESE 
WILL CONTRACT WESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS.

NO GAP WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NO GALE FORCE WIND EVENTS NOR ANY 12 FOOT SEAS...AFTER THE 
CURRENT SEAS SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY...ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 
WEEK.

$$
PAW