000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120311 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU APR 12 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT FROM 05N90W TO 03N102W. ITCZ IS PRESENT FROM 03N102W TO 02N126W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS PRESENT WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 125W. DISCUSSION... RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE NE PACIFIC THIS EVENING AS NO GALES ARE PRESENT CURRENTLY...NOR ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED AT 30N153W IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER IN THE REGION. BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE ITCZ CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR...THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING FRESH NE TRADEWINDS FROM 03N TO 12N W OF 120W. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EASTERN END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW CENTERED OVER N MEXICO IS CAUSING FRESH NW TO W WINDS JUST TO THE S AND W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE ALSO SHOULD CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE SW UNITED STATES SHOULD ENHANCE THE SW WINDS IN THE EXTREME N GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO A FRESH OR STRONG BREEZE. THESE ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NW SWELL OF AT LEAST 12 FEET WILL BE REACHING THE NW CORNER OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF WAVEWATCH MODEL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE GFS-BASED MODEL SUGGESTS AN ARRIVAL 6 TO 12 HOURS LATER. THESE HIGH SEAS WILL GRADUALLY REACH EASTWARD TO NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...BUT NOT PROGRESS S OF ABOUT 22N. THE DURATION OF AT LEAST 12 FOOT SEAS SHOULD LAST THROUGH SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST A WEEK. $$ LANDSEA