000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN APR 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N120W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 06N92W TO 05N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 85W-92W. ...DISCUSSION... A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED AND WINTER TYPE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE N OF 25N OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED TO INLAND THE U.S. W COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A LARGE DEEP LAYER RIDGE ADVANCES EWD IN ITS WAKE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH E OF 126W. UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL PACIFIC MOISTURE IS RIDING NEWD ACROSS THE CREST OF THE RIDGE...AND SPREADING SEWD INTO THE FAR NRN BOUNDARY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 123W. THE MOISTURE IS MATERIALIZING INTO SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. TO THE SE OF THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO NRN MEXICO BARELY SUSTAINS A RAPIDLY DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM FAR NW MEXICO NEAR 32N112W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO 23N120W AND TO 20N135W. BROKEN PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MARKING VERY STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE SEEN NW OF THE FRONT W OF 128W...AND ALSO WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE FRONT E OF 128W. A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER IS ANALYZED AT 32N134W. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO MON...WHILE THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EWD. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA N OF ABOUT 15N...BUT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MON. RECENTLY RECEIVED ASCAT DATA FROM NEAR 19 UTC REVEALED FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO 135W...AND NW TO N 20 KT WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IS ALSO NOTED BY THE SAME ASCAT PASS TO EXIST ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE W OF A LINE FROM 06N131W TO 14N126W TO 21N118W. A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM TODAY ALONG WITH EARLIER ALTIMETER DATA NOTED COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS IN THE RANGE OF 13 TO 21 FT OVER THE NE AND N/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF N OF 20N DUE TO LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS PROPAGATING SE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT PERSIST S OF 20N IN MIXED SW AND NE SWELL...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 12 FT MON AS THE NW SWELL PRESSES SWD. OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA...A SHARP DEEP LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY NW OF HAWAII AND WEST OF DEEP LAYER RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SHIFT EWD AND DISPLACING THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE U.S. WEST COAST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC...REACHING THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N140W BY MON AFTERNOON ERODING THE SURFACE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE TRADE WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND THE MORE NORTHERLY FLOW CLOSER TO THE BAJA COAST TO DIMINISH. THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFT EAST...REACHING FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO 28N140W BY LATE TUE. NW SWELL GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS 07N W OF 110W THROUGH LATE MON...WITH PEAK SWELL DECAYING TO 16 FT N OF 20N E OF 120W. FURTHER EAST...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ALONG A STATIONARY EAST TO WEST ORIENTED TROUGH FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO 04N95W. THE TROUGH MAY ACTUALLY BE AN INCIPIENT WEAK MONSOON TROUGH...BUT SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY VERY LIGHT AND OFTEN VARIABLE FLOW S OF THE AXIS. CONVECTIVE GROWTH CONTINUES TO BE AIDED BY A BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH GENERALLY PARALLELING THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. STRONGER CONVECTION IS NOTED FURTHER EAST ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS...BUT IS MAINLY DUE TO CONVERGENCE OF MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PANAMANIAN ISTHMUS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW TO THE SOUTH. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE GULF THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF BY LATE MON. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY EARLY MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH BY LATE MON INTO TUE AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. $$ AGUIRRE