000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010331 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN APR 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N121W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... A HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE...VERY WINTER TYPE...DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS JUST INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 125W AND N OF 28N. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN CALIFORNIA SW INTO THE AREA AT 32N121W...AND CONTINUES TO W OF THE AREA AT 24N140W. WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH QUICKLY ADVANCING EWD TO INLAND THE WRN CONUS SUN...THE COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME NW MEXICO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALSO REVEALING COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ADVECTING SEWD INTO THE AREA FROM WELL N OF 32N. LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS AT 10-14 SECONDS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 18 FT BEHIND THE FRONT. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM YESTERDAY VIVIDLY HIGHLIGHTED THESE SEA HEIGHTS...WITH MUCH HIGHER VALUES OF GREATER THAN 18 FT JUST N OF THE AREA BETWEEN 131W AND 138W WHERE WINDS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE WATERS. THIS DATA IS VERY CLOSE IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE S OF 32N AND MIX WITH LONGER PERIOD MIXED NW AND NE SWELL FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH PRES OF 1031 MB NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 33N145W IS BUILDING A RIDGE EWD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON...MAINTAINING FRESH NE TRADE WINDS FROM 06N TO 20N W OF 122W. THIS AREAS OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY INTO MON AS WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING EWD BEHIND THE FRONT...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL ALLOW FOR NW TO N WINDS OF 20-25 KT TO MATERIALIZE ALONG MUCH OF THAT COAST INTO MON...AND ALSO THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF ABOUT 29N SUN S TO 26N BY MON AS LOW PRES OVER THE SW U.S. AND NW MEXICO INTERACTS WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING EWD TOWARDS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE A RATHER PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS JUST RECENTLY MOVED INTO THE FAR WRN BOUNDARY OF THE AREA...AND IS NEAR 16N139W MOVING NE 15 KT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE TO THE E BEGINNING LATE MON...AND REACH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR 16N120W BY LATE TUE BEFORE IT WEAKENS TO A TROUGH. THIS MAY AID SOME SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER AREAS WITH DECENT TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE... ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP. THE OSCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 18 UTC SAT...AND TO LESSER EXTENT ASCAT DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY DEPICTED A WELL DEFINED WIND SHIFT MARKING THE FAR ERN PACIFIC STATIONARY TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CENTRAL COSTA RICA TO 05N89W TO NEAR 05N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 92W...ENHANCED IN PART BY UPPER DIVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 11N90W TO 03N88W TO EQUATOR AT 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 92W AND 101W. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FLARE UP PERIODICALLY OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS YET ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS EWD ACROSS THIS PART OF THE AREA...AND WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS. $$ AGUIRRE