000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAR 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 
06N111W TO 01N125W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 136W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 92W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N 
TO 07N BETWEEN 116W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 
25N CONTINUING SW FROM 25N131W TO A VIGOROUS DEEP LAYERED TUTT 
LOW NEAR CENTERED NEAR 14N145W. THE NORTHERN TROUGHING WILL PUSH 
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS LEAVING MOSTLY MERIDIONAL 
FLOW ALOFT N OF 26N. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND DEEP LAYERED 
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
FROM 02 TO 18N W OF 128W. COLD AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPILL 
INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THIS DEEP LAYERED TUTT LOW HELPING TO 
INTENSIFY IT THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING 
FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF FLOW INTO THIS CYCLONE BY 
EARLY SATURDAY AS IT CROSSES EAST OF 140W INTO THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE WILL OCCUR OVER THE 
WEEKEND...AND BEGIN TO FINALLY LIFT E-NE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE CONVECTION EAST OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ACROSS THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION E OF 
THE TUTT LOW PREVAILS S OF 23N EASTWARD TO NEAR 120W...WITH 
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING EASTWARD TO 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 84W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE FAR 
EASTERN PACIFIC THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
28N130W. AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF FRESH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OFF THE W COAST OF 
THE BAJA PENINSULA N OF 25N. WEST OF THIS AREA...WINDS WILL 
REMAIN LIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEAS 
RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL. SOUTH OF THE SURFACE 
HIGH...FRESH NE TRADEWINDS PREVAIL FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 120W AS 
SEEN IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA...WITH CONFUSED SEAS 9 TO 12 
FT IN A BROAD MIX OF NE...SW...AND NW SWELL. THESE TRADEWINDS 
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE THAT 
IS FUELING THE AREA OF CONVECTION E OF THE TUTT LOW...AND WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OTHERWISE PREVAIL E OF 110W...WITH GAP 
WIND FLOW PULSING TO NEAR 20 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS 
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LONG PERIOD SW SWELL HAS 
MOVED INTO THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BUILDING SURF ALONG THE AREA REEFS AND 
BEACHES. POWERFUL MODERATE SIZED SURF SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG 
THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CREATING 
STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

$$
HUFFMAN