000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291615 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU MAR 29 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N95W TO 06N110W TO 03.5N127W TO 04N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 45 NM S OF AXIS E OF 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N AND 30 NM S OF AXIS W OF 116W. ...DISCUSSION... MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF NE PORTION OF AREA THIS MORNING...CENTERED ALONG ABOUT 110W N OF 20N. A WEAKENING HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH CENTRAL WYOMING SW THROUGH THE SW U.S. TO ALONG 30N ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 27N120W. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AND EXTENDED SW TO A WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 28N131W...AND HAS LINKED WITH A MEANDERING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT CONTINUES SW AND IS ANCHORED ON A RATHER VIGOROUS DEEP LAYERED TUTT LOW NEAR 16N145W. THE MEAN TROUGH ALONG 110W HAS BEEN CARVED BY A SLOW MOVING MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THIS IS SHIFTING E INTO THE W COAST OF MEXICO...BEING NUDGED BY THE TWO MID LATITUDE UPPER TROUGHS. THESE TWO TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SWEEP LINGERING TROUGHING EWD ACROSS THE N HALF OF MEXICO...AND LEAVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT N OF 28N. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND DEEP LAYERED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 19N BETWEEN 129W AND 141W. COLD AIR ALOFT HAS CONTINUED TO SPILL INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THIS DEEP LAYERED TUTT LOW THE PAST TWO DAYS AND HAS HELPED TO INTENSIFY IT. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING FROM THE W WILL EVENTUALLY CUT OFF FLOW INTO THIS CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND ALLOW IT TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND...AND BEGIN TO SHIFT E-NE BY SUN. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION S OF 15-19N DURING THIS TIME. ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ACROSS THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION E OF THE TUTT LOW PREVAILS S OF 22N EWD TO NEAR 120W...WITH ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING EWD TO NEAR 90W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ALONG 86W/87W AND EXTENDS S-SE ACROSS THE EQUATOR...AND IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG TWO LLVL TROUGHS ACROSS THE FAR EPAC. AT LOWER LEVELS...THE LINGERING COLD FRONT ACROSS NW PORTIONS YESTERDAY HAS DISSIPATING...WITH A WEAK 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINING NEAR 27N128W. COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATED FRONT HAS SPILLED OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE AND IS SINKING SE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC N OF 27N. AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF FRESH NWLY WINDS CONTINUES OFF THE W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA N OF 25N AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH 36 HOURS. HIGH SEAS IN STRONG NW SWELL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THESE AREA WATERS...WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. S OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE...FRESH NE TRADEWINDS PREVAIL FROM 05N TO 19N W OF 132W...WITH CONFUSED SEAS 8 TO 12 FT THERE IN A BROAD MIX OF NW...NE...AND SW SWELL. THESE TRADEWINDS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE THAT IS FUELING THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION E OF THE TUTT LOW...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OTHERWISE PREVAIL E OF 110W...WITH GAP WIND FLOW PULSING TO NEAR 20 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND TO 95W. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LONG PERIOD SW SWELL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS MORNING AND WILL PRODUCE BUILDING SURF ALONG THE AREA REEFS AND BEACHES. POWERFUL MODERATE SIZED SURF SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY...CREATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS. $$ STRIPLING