000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAR 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ AXIS FROM 5N126W TO 4N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. A 90-100 
KT JETSTREAM AROUND THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N130W THE WINDS 
THEN SHIFT TO THE SW AT 30N131W TO 32N122W. A BAND OF HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N125W 
TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 20N 
W OF 125W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH OVER 
MEXICO. ELSEWHERE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...GENERALLY ZONAL 
WLY FLOW IS S OF 20N WITH SCATTERED PACKETS OF MOISTURE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD 
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FROM 30N122W TO 24N130W. NW-N 20-25 KT 
WINDS ARE N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT WITH SW 20 KT WINDS N OF 28N 
WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. LARGE NW SWELL TO 19 FT W OF THE 
FRONT. WINDS WILL LIKELY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 30 KT ALONG 30N BY 
LATER THIS MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW SKIRTS BY JUST N OF THE 
AREA. ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THIS LOW ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN N OF 30N. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS WITH THE 
LARGE NW SWELL GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO 8-13 FT BY MON EVENING.

SOUTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N THROUGH MON MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD 
FRONTS MENTIONED ABOVE.

A PERSISTENT TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N87W 5N92W TO 3N101W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM SE 
OF TROUGH FROM 07N TO 04N.

$$
DGS