000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240254
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAR 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N111W TO 07N126W TO 04N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 
113W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH N OF 24N W OF 120W IS SUPPORTING A COLD 
FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N131W THEN DISSIPATING 
NEAR 30N132W TO 28N140W. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO 
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NW 
WINDS OF 20 KT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND GRADUALLY 
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT REACHES 
32N126W ALONG 25N130W THEN DISSIPATING TO 23N140W BY SAT EVENING 
THEN W TO NW AT 25-30 KT WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS N OF 27N AND 
GALE FORCE WINDS JUST N OF 32N BY EARLY SUN. THE FRONT WILL 
WEAKEN SUN EXTENDING THROUGH 32N122W TO 23N128W WHERE IT WILL 
DISSIPATE TO 21N140W. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING WINDS BEHIND 
THE FRONT...WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTING 
THAT LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS SPREADING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO VERY LARGE SEA 
HEIGHTS...POSSIBLY IN THE RANGE OF 11-18 FT IN 24 HRS AND 
BUILDING FURTHER TO 15-20 FT BY 48 HRS.

A RATHER PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH E OF 110W REMAINS FROM 7N82W 
5N86W 5N91W TO 1N96W. WEAKER CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING SE OF THIS 
TROUGH WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 
01N92W TO 06N84W. 

THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 
26N140W TO NEAR THE S TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN WITH 
THE APPROACH OF THE UPCOMING COLD FRONT. A WEAK PRES GRADIENT 
PREVAILS TO THE S OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR A VERY SMALL AREA OF 
NE 20 KT WINDS FROM 15N TO 20N W OF 134W WITH SEAS OF 8 FT. 
THESE TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY SAT EVENING.

TRADE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ARE 
SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS. GAP 
WINDS SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. NE TO E WINDS 20 KT WINDS THROUGH 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 20 KT SAT NIGHT.

N WINDS OF 20 KT ARE SPILLING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM 
THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.THIS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO LATE 
SAT NIGHT BEFORE LESSENING TO LESS THAN 20 KT.

$$
PAW