000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222144
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAR 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N109W TO 06N123W TO 04N132W TO 02N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
112W-118W. 

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION SUPPORTING A COLD 
FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N126W TO 28N132W WHERE IT 
DISSIPATES TO BEYOND 25N140W. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO 
DIG S AND THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO 
THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON. VERY 
LARGE SEAS OF POSSIBLE RANGES IN THE 12-18 FT IN NW SWELLS ARE 
FORECAST BY WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE TO FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE 
FRONT THROUGH SAT. ALSO...POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS IN VERY 
STRONG NW COLD AIR FLOW MAY SKIRT THE FAR N/CENTRAL WATERS ON 
SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRES TO THE E OF THE PRESENT COLD FRONT HAS COLLAPSED 
LEAVING WEAKENING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW S AND SE OF THE FRONT. AS 
THE SECOND COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE RIDGE WILL RESPOND BY WEAKENING 
FURTHER. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS TO THE S OF 
THE RIDGE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF FRESH NELY TRADE WINDS FROM 06N 
TO 13 W OF 134W WHERE SEAS ARE TO 9 FT. THE FRESH TRADE WINDS 
WILL GRADUALLY SHRINK AND SHIFT W OF THE AREA ON FRI.  

A RATHER PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF 110W EXTENDING FROM 
SW OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO NEAR 9N90W TO NEAR 3N98W. CONVERGENCE 
OCCURRING TO THE SE OF THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSES 
OF CONVECTION...WHICH CONTINUE TO WEAKENED. THE CONVECTION MAY 
REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT.

TRADE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ARE 
SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS. GAP 
WINDS SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT AND BELOW 20 KT. TYPICAL NE-E WINDS 
OF AROUND 20 KT ARE EXPECTED FUNNEL OUT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE OR POSSIBLE 
WEAKENING EXPECTED IN SAT.

N WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO SPILL THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA BEGINNING TONIGHT WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE THROUGH FRI...THEN DROPPING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY SAT AS 
THE CARIBBEAN TRADES SLACKEN.

$$
PAW