000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191534
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N124W 4N139W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO THE SOUTHERN 
BAJA PENINSULA TO 17N114W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING W OF 
THE TROUGH. A 100-120 KT JETSTREAM ON THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH 
FROM 32N118W ACROSS NW MEXICO WHERE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AT 
90-100 KT AND CONTINUES NE TO THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS. A 75 KT 
SUBTROPICAL JET SE OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING MIDDLE AND HIGH 
LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS IS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 125W. BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH.

COLD FRONT AS MOVED INLAND. STRONG W TO NW WINDS WITH SWELLS UP 
TO 15 FT ARE N OF 28N E OF 135W. SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE W OF 
THE FRONT WITH NE TRADE AT 20 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 11 FT IN MIXED 
NE AND NW SELL ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE 
FROM 6N-20N W OF 125W. OTHERWISE LARGE NW SWELLS ARE N OF 5W W 
OF 115W.

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
AND ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT TUE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM COSTA RICA TO 3N98W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND 240 NM SE OF TROUGH AXIS.

$$
DGS