000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141000 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED MAR 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT PRESENT ACROSS E PACIFIC. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N90W TO 02N102W TO S OF THE EQUATOR AT 110W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO BE PRESENT OVER THE FAR NE PACIFIC WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT. ONE SUCH TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM FAR SRN CALIFORNIA SWWD THROUGH 32N133W TO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIFTING NE AT 27N126W...AND CONTINUES TO 24N140W AND BEYOND THE AREA ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FAST APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. A JET STREAM BRANCH ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 20N140W...AND CONTINUES NEWD TO 25N121W TO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO WELL INLAND NRN MEXICO AND THE SW U.S. AN IMPULSE RIDING NEWD ALONG THE JET IS NOTED ALONG 120W WHERE MAXIMUM JET CORE WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 75-90 K. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS BEING TRANSPORTED NEWD WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE JET E OF 125W. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 400 NM S OF THE JET W OF 125W. BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING PRESENT S OF THE JET STREAM W OF 113W IS MAINTAINING RATHER ZONAL ALOFT OVER THAT PORTION OF THE AREA. OVER THE EXTREME FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ALONG 86W. IT STRETCHES SWD TO BEYOND THE EQUATOR. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THIS AREA ALLOWING FOR ONLY VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TROUGH. JUST TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH...LOW CONVERGENCE OF NE AND SE WINDS IS NOTED. THIS IS ALSO WHERE RATHER STRONG UPPER NW FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH IS OCCURRING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EARLIER NOTED FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 93W-102W HAS SINCE WEAKENED TO ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION UNDER THE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. AT THE SURFACE...A RECENT WEAKENING JUST NW OF THE AREA IS NOW ANALYZED AS A TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH FOLLOWS IN BEHIND THIS ONE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT IS HELPING TO MATERIALIZE THEM. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THU LEAVING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEHIND IN A SHEARED NE-SW STATE. SW-W WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT OVER THE FAR NRN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KT FRI AS A COLD FRONT PASSES JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA. A SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS OVER THE NW WATERS N OF 24N W OF 126W IS RESULTING IN SEAS OF 9-11 FT. IT APPEARS THAT THESE SEAS HAVE MAXED OUT FOR NOW...AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECAY TO 8 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS BEFORE ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS ARRIVES ON FRI BRINGING POSSIBLY LARGER SEAS. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A 1021 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED AT 30N121W WITH A PRES SE TO 22N112W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N AND W OF 110W. THE PRES GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE WAS INDUCING NE TRADES OF 20 KT GENERALLY FROM 07N TO 16N W OF 115W. SEAS WITHIN THIS TRADE AREA ARE UP TO 9 FT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT WWD THROUGH THU...THEN BE REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE THAT BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NRN WATERS LATE THU INTO FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TRADES TO EXPAND LATITUDINALLY. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 25N TO EXPAND SWD TO 19N BETWEEN 110W-115W IN 48 HRS. NW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE SET TO BEGIN THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT. E OF 115W...WINDS ARE DOMINATED BY GAP WIND FLOW SPILLING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THEN DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EPAC. COMPOSITE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) IMAGERY FROM CIMSS SUGGESTS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A LOW LEVEL SMALL AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KT TO BE ALONG 124W. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVELED THIS FEATURE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE SEEN WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH. GAP WINDS... THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0416 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N96W VERY LIKELY ENHANCED BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ALLOWING FOR THESE WINDS TO START UP AS THEY FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF. HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING AN INCREASE TO THE N-NE WINDS ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE THE LENGTH OF WIND SWATH THROUGH THE GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN HINTING THAT THESE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 30 KT DURING LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HRS OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUEL GAP NE 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THEN THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND JUST DOWNWIND OF THE GULF FONSECA...EXTENDING WELL SW TO NEAR 89W THIS MORNING. SEAS TO 9 FT ARE DOWNSTREAM OF THE FLOW. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THESE WINDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. THE DOWNSTREAM NE-E 20 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST SHRINK FROM W TO E THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GULF OF PANAMA...TRADES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA AND ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA. BOTH OSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWED N-NE WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 06N BETWEEN 79W-80W TO INCLUDE THE GULF...WITH THE OSCAT PASS BEING STRONGER WITH 20 KT WIND COVERAGE. WITH THE PRESENT SYNOPTIC SET-UP OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED BY ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDING WWD THROUGH THERE...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THESE WINDS AS WELL DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HRS WITH SEAS REMAINING LESS THAN 8 FT. $$ AGUIRRE