000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN MAR 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO 03N100W AND TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR AT 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM OF 01N105W. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SW U.S. WAS LIFTING NEWD. A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SW TO ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO SW TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS COVERING THE AREA N OF 19N AND SE OF A LINE FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 19N134W. BEHIND THE TROUGH...A FLATTENING MID/UPPER RIDGE WAS CHARACTERIZED BY THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACQUIRING MORE OF ZONAL PATTERN. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS BRUSHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WHILE A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WAS HELPING TO TRANSPORT VIA A JET STREAM MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 17N TO 25N W OF 135W. THE JET STREAM BRANCH EXTENDED INTO THE AREA THROUGH 24N140W NE TO 27N127W. OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA...A RATHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO SW TO NEAR 12N96W. THE TAIL END OF MID/UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED FROM WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA S TO NEAR 06N85W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT PRODUCING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO INHIBIT ANY SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY FROM FORMING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TUE. THE UPPER LEVEL CUT-OF LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER CENTRAL SECTION OF THE U.S. DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH SWINGING ENE TO E OF THE AREA. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MON AS A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NW PORTION LATE MON INTO TUE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW TO 30N125W. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WAS JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA PASSING THROUGH 33N140W. A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDED INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N140W...AND REACHED SEWD TO NEAR 19N111W. THIS RIDGE IS WHAT WILL HELP WEAKEN THE FIRST FRONT AS IT BUILDS ACROSS IT THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE THE FRONT MOVES TOWARDS FAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INLAND FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE WAS INDUCING NE-E 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS GENERALLY FROM 04N-20N W OF 125W AND FROM 04N TO 17N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W...WITH SEAS IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 8-12 FT. HIGHEST OF THE SEAS WERE CONFINED TO W OF ABOUT 131W. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLY THIS MORNING CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO PERHAPS DIMINISH IN THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES BY THE NEXT 24 HRS...THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY BOTH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND IN WIND SPEEDS BY 48 HRS AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TO A 1018 TO 1020 MB HIGH CENTER IN THE NE PART OF THE AREA. THIS WILL THEN ALLOW FOR THE STRONGER COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY THE MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE PRECEDED BY SW WINDS OF 20 KT. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FRONTS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS WILL BE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FORECAST TO SWEEP SE INTO THE AREA. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOW THE FIRST BATCH ALREADY PRESENT N OF ABOUT 20N AND W OF A LINE FROM 30N124W TO 20N130W RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 10 FT. THESE SWELLS SLOWLY DECAY THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO LOWER TO 9 FT FOR THE MOST PART. ANOTHER BATCH OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS THEN BARELY MOVES INTO THE FAR NW WATERS TUE PRODUCING SEAS OF UP TO 11 OR 12 FT N OF 29N AND W OF 130W. GAP WINDS... THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AN OSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0600 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED N WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH THE 25 KT WINDS JUST ALONG THE COAST. AS THE PRES GRADIENT INLAND THE MEXICAN COAST SLOWLY SLACKENS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THE WINDS WILL RESPOND BY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUEL GAP WIND FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THEN THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND WELL SW TO NEAR 90W. NE-E 20 KT WINDS SPREAD WESTWARD FROM THERE TO 104W. SEAS WITHIN THIS AREA WERE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE LARGEST AREAL EXTEND OF THE FRESH WINDS WILL BE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER INLAND COSTA RICA. THE GULF OF PANAMA...TRADES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA AND ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WAS NOTED IN AN OSCAT AND WSAT PASS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. SEAS OF UP TO 8 FT ARE POSSIBLE JUST S OF THE GULF. THE N-NE 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN MAR 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO 03N100W AND TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR AT 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM OF 01N105W. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SW U.S. WAS LIFTING NEWD. A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SW TO ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO SW TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS COVERING THE AREA N OF 19N AND SE OF A LINE FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 19N134W. BEHIND THE TROUGH...A FLATTENING MID/UPPER RIDGE WAS CHARACTERIZED BY THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACQUIRING MORE OF ZONAL PATTERN. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS BRUSHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WHILE A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WAS HELPING TO TRANSPORT VIA A JET STREAM MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 17N TO 25N W OF 135W. THE JET STREAM BRANCH EXTENDED INTO THE AREA THROUGH 24N140W NE TO 27N127W. OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA...A RATHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO SW TO NEAR 12N96W. THE TAIL END OF MID/UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED FROM WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA S TO NEAR 06N85W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT PRODUCING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO INHIBIT ANY SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY FROM FORMING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TUE. THE UPPER LEVEL CUT-OF LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER CENTRAL SECTION OF THE U.S. DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH SWINGING ENE TO E OF THE AREA. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MON AS A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NW PORTION LATE MON INTO TUE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW TO 30N125W. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WAS JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA PASSING THROUGH 33N140W. A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDED INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N140W...AND REACHED SEWD TO NEAR 19N111W. THIS RIDGE IS WHAT WILL HELP WEAKEN THE FIRST FRONT AS IT BUILDS ACROSS IT THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE THE FRONT MOVES TOWARDS FAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INLAND FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE WAS INDUCING NE-E 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS GENERALLY FROM 04N-20N W OF 125W AND FROM 04N TO 17N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W...WITH SEAS IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 8-12 FT. HIGHEST OF THE SEAS WERE CONFINED TO W OF ABOUT 131W. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLY THIS MORNING CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO PERHAPS DIMINISH IN THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES BY THE NEXT 24 HRS...THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY BOTH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND IN WIND SPEEDS BY 48 HRS AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TO A 1018 TO 1020 MB HIGH CENTER IN THE NE PART OF THE AREA. THIS WILL THEN ALLOW FOR THE STRONGER COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY THE MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE PRECEDED BY SW WINDS OF 20 KT. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FRONTS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS WILL BE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FORECAST TO SWEEP SE INTO THE AREA. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOW THE FIRST BATCH ALREADY PRESENT N OF ABOUT 20N AND W OF A LINE FROM 30N124W TO 20N130W RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 10 FT. THESE SWELLS SLOWLY DECAY THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO LOWER TO 9 FT FOR THE MOST PART. ANOTHER BATCH OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS THEN BARELY MOVES INTO THE FAR NW WATERS TUE PRODUCING SEAS OF UP TO 11 OR 12 FT N OF 29N AND W OF 130W. GAP WINDS... THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AN OSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0600 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED N WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF WITH THE 25 KT WINDS JUST ALONG THE COAST. AS THE PRES GRADIENT INLAND THE MEXICAN COAST SLOWLY SLACKENS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THE WINDS WILL RESPOND BY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUEL GAP WIND FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THEN THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND WELL SW TO NEAR 90W. NE-E 20 KT WINDS SPREAD WESTWARD FROM THERE TO 104W. SEAS WITHIN THIS AREA WERE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE LARGEST AREAL EXTEND OF THE FRESH WINDS WILL BE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER INLAND COSTA RICA. THE GULF OF PANAMA...TRADES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA AND ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WAS NOTED IN AN OSCAT AND WSAT PASS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. SEAS OF UP TO 8 FT ARE POSSIBLE JUST S OF THE GULF. THE N-NE 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. $$ AGUIRRE