000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAR 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ IS ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 90W AND 110W...AND S OF 
THE EQUATOR ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N 
TO 05N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW REGION N OF 25N W OF 125W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FURTHER E...N OF 25N BETWEEN 110W AND 
125W MOVING E. IN THE TROPICS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS S OF 30N E 
OF 120W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE EASTERN 
PACIFIC SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL 
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 31N130W. FURTHER W...A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY 
FRONT JUST REACHED THE NW REGION FROM 33N134W TO BEYOND 29N140W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. THIS 
FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 

GAP WINDS... 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
EXISTS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE THAT
IS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE THAT IS IN 
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS GRADIENT IS BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THAT RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS. NORTHWESTERLY 20 KNOT 
WINDS ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF 26N AND TO THE EAST OF 116W
TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH
TO 20 KNOTS FROM 23N TO 28N AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY GALE-FORCE 
WINDS WILL BEGIN IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. EXPECT THE GALE TO BE SHORT 
LIVED AND LAST FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO 30 KT. 
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KT 12 HOURS LATER. 

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A COASTAL LAND STATION SURFACE 
OBSERVATION IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA IS SHOWING 20 KNOT GAP 
WIND FLOW IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL 
NICARAGUA...REACHING AS FAR WEST INTO THE PACIFIC AS 92W. A 
LARGE AREA OF NORTHEASTERLY SWELL HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED IN THE 
TROPICAL NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 110W DUE TO THE 
COMBINED INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP 
WINDS EVENTS. HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS THAT WILL WILL 
FUNNEL ACROSS AND THROUGH THE GULF AS NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY 
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

THE GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MAINTAIN SPURTS OF FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW 
ACROSS THE PANAMA ISTHMUS AND INTO THE BAY OF PANAMA THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA