000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 05N TO THE EAST
OF 110W...AND FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 1124W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.A. 
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 29N130W. 
THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AT
07/0600 UTC HAS DISSIPATED AND IT HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE 
ANALYSIS AT 07/1200 UTC. CURRENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW THE 
20 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST 
OF 122W. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY...
LEAVING A CUT OFF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE 
SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A. BY LATE WEDNESDAY. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER 
RIDGE ALONG 140W N OF 20N WILL SHIFT EAST TO 135W BEHIND THE 
TROUGH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE 
COMPUTER MODELS FORECASTS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DIG EASTWARD 
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
FLATTEN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIDGE AND PUSHING IT MORE TO THE
SOUTH...AND PUSH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE RIDGE EASTWARD INTO 
THE GREAT BASIN AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT ON SURFACE WEATHER IN THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WILL BE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT WILL 
BUILD INTO THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N ON WEDNESDAY. 
THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH OFF THE 
NORTHERN BAJA COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS THAT ARE EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL 
INCREASE IN LOCALIZED NEARSHORE AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND 
CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CLOSE TO LOW MOUNTAIN PASSES
IN THE TERRAIN. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FROM 05N TO 20N MAINLY TO THE WEST OF
120W. NORTHERLY SWELL WITH HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FT WILL 
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS INCREASING IN 
THE FAR NORTHERN GULF...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA. FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT DOWN THE SPINE OF THE GULF THROUGH TODAY. IT 
WILL INCREASE INTO THURSDAY AT LEAST TO 25 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTH.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE WIND SPEEDS IN SALINA CRUZ MEXICO HAVE 
BEEN IN THE RANGE OF THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20 KT. THE GALE WARNING 
WAS CANCELED AT 07/1200 UTC. THE TENDENCY IN THE FORECAST IS FOR
THE WIND SPEEDS TO DECREASE GRADUALLY DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO 
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. FRESH GAP FLOW WILL OCCUR AGAIN BY 
LATE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AGAIN.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE 0550 OSCAT DATA SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT GAP 
FLOW OVER PRETTY MUCH NW COSTA RICA AND THE COAST OF 
NICARAGUA...REACHING AS FAR WEST INTO THE PACIFIC AS 95W.
A LARGE AREA OF NE SWELL ALREADY HAS SET UP IN THE TROPICAL
NORTH PACIFIC TO THE EAST OF 110W DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCE
OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS EVENTS. EVEN AS THE 
TEHUANTEPEC WINDS DIMINISH TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS  
BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MAINTAIN STRONG 
TRADE WINDS THAT WILL FUEL THE PAPAGAYO EVENT FOR THE REMAINDER 
OF THE WEEK. IT ALSO WILL MAINTAIN THE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
SWELL IN THE DOWNSTREAM PLUME.

GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MAINTAIN SPURTS OF FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW 
ACROSS THE PANAMA ISTHMUS AND INTO THE BAY OF PANAMA THROUGH THE 
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 

$$
MT