000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070959 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED MAR 07 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ FROM 02N87W T0 00N103W THEN ACROSS THE EQUATOR TO BEYOND 03S120W. NO MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... COLD AIR IS PLUNGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 29N130W. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 29N125W TO 30N130W. THE UPPER TROUGH LIFT NE LATER TODAY...LEAVING A CUT OFF MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES BY LATE WED. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ALONG 140W N OF 20N WILL SHIFT EAST TO 135W BEHIND THE TROUGH THROUGH LATE WED. ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND MOVEMENT REMAIN...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS CALLS FOR A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIG EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NE PACIFIC WED INTO...FLATTENING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND PUSHING IT FURTHER SOUTH...AND PUSHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT ON SURFACE WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL BE A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE WATERS N OF 25N WED...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST BY LATE WED. N TO NE WINDS EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE IN LOCALIZED NEARSHORE AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CLOSE TO LOW MOUNTAIN PASSES IN THE TERRAIN. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST S OF THE HIGH PRES FROM 05N TO 20N MAINLY W OF 120W. MEANWHILE NORTHERLY SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA THROUGH THU. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SW FLOW IS INCREASING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA. FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD BEHIND THE FRONT DOWN THE SPINE OF THE GULF THROUGH TODAY...THEN INCREASE INTO THU TO AT LEAST 25 KT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTH. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A PAIR OF RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES...A 0318 UTC ASCAT PASS AND A 0550 UTC OSCAT PASS...CAPTURED THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC VERY WELL AND INDICATED WINDS WERE ALREADY LIKELY NO HIGHER THAN 30 KT. WILL LET THE GALE WARNING PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING NONETHELESS SINCE THIS IS THE BEST TIME FOR DRAINAGE FLOW EFFECTS...AND GIVEN THAT RECENT REPORTS FROM LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS ON EITHER END OF THE ISTHMUS INDICATED THERE WAS STILL A 5 MB DIFFERENCE IN SURFACE PRES. WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARD RAPIDLY TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. LOOKING AHEAD...FRESH GAP FLOW WILL OCCUR AGAIN BY LATE FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN TO THE NORTH. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE 0550 OSCAT DATA SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT GAP FLOW OVER PRETTY MUCH NW COSTA RICA AND THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...REACHING AS FAR WEST INTO THE PACIFIC AS 95W. A LARGE AREA OF NE SWELL HAS ALREADY SET UP OVER THE TROPICAL N PACIFIC E OF 110W DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS EVENTS. EVEN AS THE TEHUANTEPEC WINDS DIMINISH TODAY...HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADES THAT WILL FUEL THE PAPAGAYO EVENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND MAINTAIN THE NE TO E SWELL IN THE DOWNSTREAM PLUME. GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN SPURTS OF FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PANAMA ISTHMUS AND INTO THE BAY OF PANAMA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. $$ CHRISTENSEN