000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070311
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 06N77W TO 04N82W. 
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N82W TO 02N100W TO 00N107W TO 04S120W 
TO 00N130W TO 00N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N 
TO 07N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W.


...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW REGION N OF 20N BETWEEN 
120W AND 140W MOVING E. IN THE TROPICS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH 
IS CENTERED NEAR 07N96W. RIDGING EXTENDS INTO MEXICO AND COVERS 
THE AREA S OF 30N E OF 120W. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO 
DEVELOP INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA BY FRI NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO BE 
QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE SAME TIME. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1037 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 
43N139W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S CALIFORNIA 
TO 32N127W. EXPECT 20 KT NW WINDS TO BE ALONG THE NW COAST 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 12 HOURS. EXPECT SHORTLY AFTER FOR THE 
SAME WINDS TO BE OVER THE N GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 20 TO 25 KT 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
BY THU MORNING.     

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COOL AIR MASS BEHIND A GULF OF MEXICO 
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIVE A STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS T0NIGHT...THEN THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. N-NE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE FORECAST 
UNTIL EARLY WED WHEN WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 25-35 KT. WINDS WILL 
BE LESS THAN GALE FORCE BY LATE WED. BY THU...N-NE 20 KT WINDS 
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NELY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 
20-30 KT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD SW. THESE NE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 25 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AND 
CONTINUE INTO 48 HRS WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. THESE NE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE DOWNWIND PLUME GENERATED FROM 
TEHUANTEPEC. 

GULF OF PANAMA...20-25 KT TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL 
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES 
BUILDING N OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL PUSH SWD ACROSS THE 
PANAMA ISTHMUS AND INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH WED REACHING 
POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS 04N.

$$
FORMOSA