000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 06 2012
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT EVIDENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AT THE 
PRESENT TIME AS IT REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO S OF THE EQUATOR. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST N OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 107W-112W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 
07N85W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL WEAKENING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW U.S. SW
TO 23N121W...AND S TO 11N121W TO S OF OF THE EQUATOR AT 
122W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA BEHIND THE 
TROUGH. A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW REGION OF
THE U.S. WILL DROP SEWD WHILE SHARPENING DURING THE NEXT 12-48 HRS
ALLOWING FOR THE AREA OF HIGH PRES RIDGING TO AMPLIFY NWD. THIS
IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A CUT OFF LOW WELL W OF THE AREA
N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO LIFT NWD IN BECOME ABSORBED INTO
ANOTHER SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH. THE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE
NW U.S. WILL DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
BY MIDDAY WED. A RELATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING SWD TO JUST
OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA FROM NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR
24N125W BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A ROUND
OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND A NEW ROUND OF NORTH 
SWELL. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH WED AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER 
DYNAMICS THEN LIFT NE OF THE AREA. 

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MENTIONED ABOVE AMPLIFIES...SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS THE MOST OF THE AREA WILL ALSO INTENSIFY INTO WED
...THEN SHIFT EWD LATE WED AND THU AS THE PARENT HIGH CENTER N 
OF THE REGION SHIFTS SE AND WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
FAR NW CORNER OF THE REGION BY THU WITH SLY WINDS TO 20 KT. WITH 
THE HIGH STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS FROM 05N TO 15N W OF 130W 
WILL EXPAND WESTWARD AS A RESULT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COOL AIR MASS BEHIND A GULF OF MEXICO 
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIVE STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS THIS MORNING...THEN THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A 0640 UTC OSCAT PASS CAPTURED A LARGE 
PORTION OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND SHOWED 35 KT GALE FORCE 
WINDS. THESE WINDS MAY BE INCREASING SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING 
DUE TO LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS NEAR THE COAST...AND AS 
REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND SE GULF OF 
MEXICO. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE 
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 20 KT DURING BY WED AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NELY WIND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20 
TO 25 KT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD SW...AND ARE FORCING 
SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W. THESE NE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT ON TUE AND SPREAD 
SOUTHWESTWARD AND DOWNWIND BEYOND 450 NM...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 
12 FT. THIS PLUME OF NELY WINDS WILL MERGE WITH THE DOWNWIND 
PLUME GENERATED FROM TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT EXPANDS 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH TODAY. 

GULF OF PANAMA...TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING N 
OF THE AREA. SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PANAMA 
ISTHMUS AND INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH WED.  

$$
AGUIRRE