000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051545
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 05 2012
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FROM 09N83W TO 04N90W. ITCZ AXIS IS FROM 
04N90W TO 00N100W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 
100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N 
E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 06N 
BETWEEN 82W AND 89W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH N 
OF 17N BETWEEN 117W AND 130W IS MOVING NE TOWARD SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA...AND WILL COME IN PHASE WITH A SHARP LONG WAVE 
TROUGH MIGRATING FROM THE FAR NW PACIFIC SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD 
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE MOVEMENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH 
WILL FLATTEN AN ALREADY LOW AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE N 
OF 20N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE TROPICS N OF 10N E OF 
115W. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 35N135W. A COLD 
FRONT IS FURTHER W ALONG 32N143W MOVING E. THE COLD FRONT WILL 
PUSH SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE WATERS N OF 28N 
BY LATE WED...ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND 
A NEW PUSH OF NW TO N SWELL. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WED INTO 
THU N OF 25N E OF 125W. IN THE TROPICS...THE TRADE WINDS FROM 
05N TO 20N W OF 130W WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN AREAL 
COVERAGE. TRADEWINDS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL 
COVERAGE AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 20N W OF 110W ON TUE 
AND WED. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COOL AIR MASS BEHIND A GULF OF MEXICO 
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIVE STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS TODAY...THEN THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. A 0548 UTC OSCAT PASS CAPTURED THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AREA QUITE WELL AND SHOWED 40 KT GALE FORCE WINDS. 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GALES WILL PERSIST TO WED 
MORNING. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NELY WIND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE 20 
TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT TUE. THESE WINDS 
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWESTWARD AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF BEYOND 450 NM 
TODAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT...MIXING WITH THE DOWNWIND 
PLUME GENERATED FROM TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT EXPANDS 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY AND MONDAY. 

GULF OF PANAMA...TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING N 
OF THE AREA. SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PANAMA 
ISTHMUS AND INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA BY LATE TUE.  

$$
FORMOSA.