000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050951
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAR 05 2012
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS CURRENTLY NOT EVIDENT ACROSS THE E 
PACIFIC. ITCZ AXIS FROM 00N100W TO 01S105W TO 01N115W TO BEYOND 
02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM 33N130W TO 25N123W 
IS MOVING NE TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND WILL COME IN PHASE 
WITH A SHARP LONG WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING FROM THE FAR NW PACIFIC 
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE MOVEMENT 
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN AN ALREADY LOW AMPLITUDE MID 
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 25N TO 37N ALONG 135W...AND IN THE 
PROCESS ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED 1025 MB NEAR 37N130W TO CONTINUE TO 
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO THE 
TROPICS...THE TRADE WINDS FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 130W WILL 
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE. THE PATTERN STARTS TO 
CHANGE STARTING TONIGHT AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING REBUILDS N OF 20N 
ALONG 140W BETWEEN THE EXITING LONG WAVE TROUGH...BY THEN 
DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND A QUASI-STATIONARY 
CUTOFF UPPER LOW N OF HAWAII NEAR 36N150W. THE RESURGENT RIDGE 
WILL ALLOW TRADE WIND FLOW TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL 
COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 20N W OF 110W TUE AND WED. A 
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST 
WILL PUSH SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE WATERS N OF 
28N BY LATE WED...ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS 
AND A NEW PUSH OF NW TO N SWELL. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WED 
INTO THU N OF 25N E OF 125W.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COOL AIR MASS BEHIND A GULF OF MEXICO 
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIVE STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS THIS EVENING...THEN THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A 040O UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AREA QUITE WELL AND SHOWED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED 
SOMEWHAT TO GALE FORCE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GALES 
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO 
TUE...ALTHOUGH TEMPORARILY INCREASING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MON 
AND TUE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DRAINAGE INFLUENCES. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY WED AS THE GRADIENT 
WEAKENS. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NELY WIND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL 
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT...AND THEN 20 TO 30 KT THIS 
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWESTWARD AND DOWNWIND OF 
THE GULF BEYOND 450 NM BY MIDDAY TODAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 
12 FT...MIXING WITH THE DOWNWIND PLUME GENERATED FROM 
TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE 
GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT EXPANDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT 
AND MONDAY. 

GULF OF PANAMA...TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING N 
OF THE AREA. SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PANAMA 
ISTHMUS AND INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA BY LATE TUE.  

$$
CHRISTENSEN