000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031013
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAR 03 2012
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED SOUTH OF THE 
EQUATOR.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ROUND IN THE BASE OF A 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED 
STATES...AHEAD OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NE 
PACIFIC N OF 30N ALONG 135W. AN ASSOCIATED 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH 
IS CENTERED NEAR 39N136W. SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUE 
TO SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE NORTH COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA...BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...AND A DEEP 
1002 MB LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL MEXICO. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO 
SHOW A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE 
AREA FROM 05N TO 25N W OF 115W. THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL 
WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST TO 130W BY LATE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP 
LAYER TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF 
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST 
WATERS AND THE NW TO N FLOW OFF THE BAJA COAST IS EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTH. A MIX OF 
NE AND NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 9 TO 12 FT...AND TO 14 FT OFF 
NORTHERN BAJA...COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W BUT WILL 
SUBSIDE GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SINK 
SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
BEHIND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF LATER TODAY. THIS 
WILL INITIATE STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER 
TODAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP IN 
VELOCITY AND SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A RANGE 
OF 18 TO 21 FT BY LATE SUNDAY.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AN EARLIER OSCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS TO 
GALE FORCE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS IS 
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER THE GREAT 
BASIN TO THE NORTH. ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT MAY EXIST TO SUPPORT 
WINDS TO GALE FORCE AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THE 
APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND TROUGHING 
OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN WINDS TO 30 KT THROUGH 48 
HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...OSCAT DATA FROM 0548 UTC SHOWED WINDS OF 15 
TO 20 KT THROUGH PAPAGAYO AND OFF THE NICARAGUAN COAST. THIS 
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS GRADIENT FLOW WEAKENS 
FOR THE TIME BEING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. 

GULF OF PANAMA...SHIP DATA N OF THE ISTHMUS AND AN ASCAT PASS 
FROM 0300 UTC OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA SHOWED WINDS LESS THAN 20 
KT. UPSTREAM TRADES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AREA DIMINISHING AND 
WINDS TO 20 KT ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA 
THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN