000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012152 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU MAR 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 103W AND 109W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... A 1035 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA CENTERED NEAR 35N144W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 20N110W. NW TO N WINDS PERSIST ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA PRIMARILY N OF 24N E OF 120W ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EARLY SATURDAY. 15-17 SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND RAISE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 9-14 FT BY FRIDAY. THE SWELL WILL THEN DECAY AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTHWARD AND WAVE ENERGY DISSIPATES. BY SATURDAY...NW WINDS FILTERING THROUGH PASSES IN THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION WILL PROVIDE N TO NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT N OF 26N E OF 118W. S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 114W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...SHIFTING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WESTWARD...REMAINING MAINLY W OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALOFT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 15N140W AND IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.. A 70-90 KT JETSTREAM LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA FROM 09N TO 26N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA AND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 125W AND 133W. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IS FORCING FRESH NW WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 23N TO 25N THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...TO THE NORTH...THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF PRODUCING NW WINDS TO 30 KT THAT ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE SATURDAY. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORCING STRONG NE FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A RECENT 01/1614 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED AN AREA FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 86W AND 94W OF NE TO E WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT. THIS AREA OF WIND IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY SATURDAY WITH ONLY AN AREA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REMAINING ABOVE A 20 KT THRESHOLD DUE TO AN OVERALL GRADUALLY WEAKENING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TRADE WIND FLOW. GULF OF PANAMA...NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS REMAIN STRONG OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. $$ HUFFMAN