000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 01 2012
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0815 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100W AND 106W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE 1034 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH LIES NW OF THE AREA NEAR 35N145W 
AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO 15N105W. THE REMAINS OF A 
COLD FRONT HAVE ENTERED THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL PASS THROUGH 
NE WATERS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY FRI. THE 
FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS CURRENTLY ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA N OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI BEFORE 
DISSIPATING. 16-18 SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL IS PASSING INTO NE 
WATERS BEHIND THE FRONTAL REMAINS. THIS WILL RAISE SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHTS TO 10-14 FT BY EARLY FRI. THE SWELL WILL THEN DECAY 
AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTHWARD. 

S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE 
MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 120W AS SEEN BY THE 0524 UTC ASCAT PASS. 
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
TWO DAYS...EXPANDING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS 
EASTWARD.

THE MEAN TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDS FROM 32N127W TO 12N135W. A 70-90 
KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH. 
THIS JET IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM 
NEAR 05N135W TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AN AREA OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 
122W AND 130W NEAR THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET. 
ELSEWHERE...THIS MOISTURE IS MANIFESTED AS BAND OF MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRES GRADIENT OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA 
BETWEEN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER N 
CENTRAL MEXICO IS FORCING FRESH NW WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AND S ALONG THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST TO 19N. THIS 
AREA OF WIND IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE FRI MORNING. AT 
THE SAME TIME...THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE 
NORTHERN GULF. NW WINDS TO 30 KT WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE 
LENGTH OF THE GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD EARLY SAT 
MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORCING STRONG NE FLOW INTO THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRI. THE AREA 
OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE 
DURING THAT TIME. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF ENHANCED NE TO E 
WINDS EXTENDS DOWNWIND FROM PAPAGAYO ROUGHLY FROM 05N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 95W TO 110W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH HERE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT 
BUT THE EASTERLY SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS TO 8 FT THROUGH EARLY SAT 
MORNING.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 
FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS REMAIN STRONG 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$
SCHAUER