000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 29 2012
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N96W TO 
THE EQUATOR NEAR 109W TO 01N117W TO 01N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 100W AND 
106W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE 1033 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH LIES NW OF THE AREA NEAR 35N148W 
AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LIES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA 
BETWEEN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER NORTH- 
CENTRAL MEXICO. A 29/1632 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE FRESH TO 
STRONG NW WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FORCED BY 
THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT. 

A NEW COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM MONTEREY BAY CALIFORNIA SW TO 
NEAR 33N138W AND WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING 
PASSING THROUGH NE WATERS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRESH NW WINDS CURRENTLY ALONG 
THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL INCREASE 
TO STRONG AND POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT. 16-18 
SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PASS INTO NE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT 
AS WELL...RAISING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BEHIND THE FRONT TO 9 
TO 14 FT BY EARLY FRIDAY. 

S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE 
MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 117W AS SEEN BY THE 29/1814 UTC ASCAT 
PASS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE STRENGTH OR POSITION OF 
THESE WINDS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THE MEAN TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDS FROM 32N124W TO 15N135W. A 60-90 
KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH. 
THIS JET IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD OVER 
THE AREA FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 110W AND 131W. MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AN AREA OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 10N130W TO 20N116W WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE REMAINS 
MAXIMIZED. ELSEWHERE...THE MOISTURE IS MANIFESTED AS BANDS OF 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT LIES NEAR 08N96W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE 
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 00N106W. AN AREA OF SPEED CONVERGENCE AT THE 
SURFACE LIES BENEATH THE ITCZ AXIS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS 
AREA IS BEING LIFTED BY THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THUS RESULTING IN 
ENHANCEMENT OF THE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE 
ITCZ DESCRIBED ABOVE.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...20-25 KT NW WINDS ARE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF 
S OF 27N EXTENDING S TO 22N E OF 110W. BY FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS 
WILL BE TEMPORARILY LESS THAN 20 KT IN THE GULF BEFORE THE NEXT 
COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ENTERS THE NORTHERN 
BAJA AND MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA LATER ON FRIDAY.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORCING STRONG NE FLOW INTO THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL ENERGY EXTENDING DOWNWIND FROM 
PAPAGAYO IS ENHANCING NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AS FAR W AS 110W. 
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK IN AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GULF OF PANAMA... NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 
KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT THIS EVENING. FRESH NORTH WINDS WILL 
PERSIST UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN