000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281517
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 28 2012
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ 03N90W TO 01N108W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N126W TO 20N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS 
FROM 20N-30N W OF 115W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 5N97W N ACROSS 
SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 94W-99W. A 95-105 KT JETSTREAM IS FROM 
22N120W NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA WHERE THE WINDS 
INCREASE TO 115-125 KT. BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 
300 NM SE OF THE JET. TRANSVERSE BANDING IS INDICATED ON THE 
CIRRUS CLOUDS INDICATING POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE.

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA 
TO 23N30W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 30N136W. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF 20N W OF 110W.

TRADES IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE FROM 7N-24N W OF 120W WITH SEAS TO 
11 FT. ALSO LARGE NW SWELLS 9-12 FT ARE N OF 24N W OF 120W. 
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.

THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO TO 
PRODUCE NLY WINDS TO 30 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY EARLY THU.

ELY WINDS 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND NLY WIND 20 
KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
DGS