000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280307
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 28 2012
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N130W TO 03N140W...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION NEAR THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM YUMA AZ TO 30N117W TO 25N125W. THE 
FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIF 
TUE MORNING. ASCAT PASS AT 1900 UTC SHOWED VERY STRONG N-NW WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE WINDS WILL
SPREAD LARGE N SWELL INTO NE PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT 
AND TUE.

TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE AT LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH A NEGATIVELY 
TILTED TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUE TO ENHANCE MODEST DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG 10N BETWEEN 114W AND 120W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT S 
OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SMALL CLUSTERS OF 
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N E OF 95W AND NIGHTTIME CONVECTION ALONG 
THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ASCAT PASS AT 1536 UTC ALONG WITH EARLIER  
SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE GAP WINDS HOVERING AROUND 20 TO 25 
KT. GUIDANCE INDICATES 20 TO 25 KT GAP FLOW THROUGH WED MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH WED. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL ENERGY EXTENDING DOWNWIND 
FROM PAPAGAYO IS ENHANCING NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AT LEAST AS 
FAR W AS 95W BASED ON OBSERVATIONS 0640 UTC OSCAT PASS. THESE 
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH SW WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN 
GULF AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BY SUNRISE TUE...PRES GRADIENT 
WILL BUILD BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TROUGHING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. N-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH S OF 28N IN THE GULF AS FAR S AS 19N ALONG THE COAST OF 
MEXICO BY EARLY WED MORNING.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CROSSING 
THE ISTHMUS INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH 20-25 KT N WINDS PULSING IN THE GULF THROUGH WED.

$$
MUNDELL