000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271550 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON FEB 27 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1430 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 01N124W 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IT NOTED NEAR THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... AN ACTIVE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST TO 25N140W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA TO 22N125W BY LATE TODAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY TUE. OVERNIGHT OSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES INDICATED THE NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST HAS TEMPORARILY DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 15 KT. 20 TO 25 KT NW TO N WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT. FURTHER WEST...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS ORIENTED NE TO SW FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO N OF HAWAII NEAR 30N155W. SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE N TO NE WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KT MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 130W...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. A STRONG ZONAL JET IS FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE...AND WEAKENING AN ASSOCIATED 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 38N145W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH N OF 20N THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH...ALTHOUGH TRADE WINDS S OF 20N W OF 110W WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY. TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUE TO ENHANCE MODEST CONVECTION ALONG 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N E OF 95W...TO INCLUDE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0302 UTC CAPTURED THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FOLLOWED BY A 0640 UTC OSCAT PASS THAT CAPTURED THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. BOTH PASSES INDICATED GAP WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 20 KT...ALTHOUGH EACH PASS MISSED THE MIDDLE OF THE PLUME WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE. A SHIP INDICATED HIGHER WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KT THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE INDICATES 20 TO 25 KT GAP FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS AROUND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO DRAINAGE EFFECTS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WED MORNING. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL ENERGY EXTENDING DOWNWIND FROM PAPAGAYO IS ENHANCING NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AT LEAST AS FAR W AS 95W BASED ON OBSERVATIONS 0640 UTC OSCAT PASS. THESE WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN GULF LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DROPPING S ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE TUE...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. N TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH S OF 28N IN THE GULF TO AS FAR S AS 19N ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO BY EARLY WED MORNING. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CROSSING THE ISTHMUS INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. SHIPS PCIH AND A8PX4 NEAR THE CARIBBEAN ENTRANCE TO THE CANAL REPORTED 20 TO 25 KT NE WINDS...LIKELY CROSSING THE LOWER TERRAIN OVER THE CENTRAL ISTHMUS INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. A RECENT REPORT FROM SHIP A8IP3 AND AN EARLIER 0458 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 KT FLOW ALREADY IN THE GULF. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT N WINDS PULSING INTO THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. $$ CHRISTENSEN