000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 26 2012
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N121W TO 05N133W TO 04N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE N OF THE AREA WILL DIG SE INTO 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES SW 
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE 
WINDS COVERING MUCH OF THE PACIFIC FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 
HAWAII...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE NW DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N W OF 
125W. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WILL FOLLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT 
WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC WATERS OFF THE NORTHERN 
BAJA COAST TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 
MIDWEEK AS LOW PRES LIFTS OUT TO THE NE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH... 
ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO SHIFT SE. 

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE TOWARD SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AND MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 
105W AND 115W...AND PROVIDING ENOUGH LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED CONVECTION...WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY A NEGATIVELY 
TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM 17N125W TO 05N110W.
GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE WARNING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 2100 UTC.
EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHAUNTEPEC THROUGH TUE MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONGER PRES GRADIENT IN SW CARIBBEAN IS 
MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. 
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL 
ENERGY EXTENDING DOWNWIND FROM PAPAGAYO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY 
REFLECT DOWN TO THE SURFACE...INCREASING THE TROUGHING ALONG THE 
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH S OF PAPAGAYO AND EXPANDING THE AREA OF 
FRESH NE WINDS AS FAR AS 105W BY TUE MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD 
FRONT MON N OF 29N. FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TUE AFTER THE FRONT DISSIPATES.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH N-NE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CROSS THE ISTHMUS
INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH TUE. SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
MUNDELL