000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 24 2012
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N106W TO 02N140W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION NOTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

...DISCUSSION...
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS SHOWS LIGHT TO 
MODERATE E-NE TRADE WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA EXCEPT 
FOR A SMALL PORTION N OF 28N BETWEEN 125W AND 131W ASSOCIATED 
WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SE OF A COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA... 
STRETCHING FROM 40N132W TO 34N150W. HIGHEST SEAS ARE FOUND N OF 
25N...AND ARE THE RESULT OF N SWELL GENERATED BY STRONG WINDS 
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THE LAST TWO DAYS.

A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST 
NEAR 28N122W WITH LIGHT WINDS. BUT STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SE 
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT NW OF THE 
CIRCULATION AND ALLOW NE WINDS TO FRESHEN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 
SUN MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL REMAIN 
RELATIVELY LIGHT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR GAP WINDS ALONG THE COAST 
OF CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH MON MORNING. MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS 
CAN BE EXPECTED S OF 24N W OF 115W THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH 
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT GULFS OF PAPAGAYO 
AND TEHUANTEPEC. HIGHEST SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED IN NW 
PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. EXPECT 8 
TO 13 FT SEAS IN N TO NE SWELL NW OF LINE FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO
AROUND 17N140W TO BE PRIMARY FOCUS IN HIGH SEAS FORECAST THROUGH 
MON NIGHT...WHEN SEAS GENERATED BY THE STRONGER TRADE WINDS S OF 
20N W OF 120W WILL START TO BECOME A FACTOR AGAIN.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CHIVELA PASS AND PRODUCE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE TO 35 KT SHORTLY AFTERWARD...AND PEAK AT AROUND 40 KT 
LATE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH 
BELOW GALE FORCE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS BUT REMAIN 20-25 KT THROUGH 
MON NIGHT OR EARLY TUE. STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WILL GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL TO 13-14 FT SUN MORNING WHICH WILL 
SPREAD OUT AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 8-9 FT BY MON MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...INCREASED EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL 
AND SW CARIBBEAN SAT WILL BRING NE-E WINDS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO EARLY SUN MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
20-25 KT FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 90W INCLUDING PAPAGAYO THROUGH TUE.

$$
MUNDELL