000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240909 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI FEB 24 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0700 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N105W TO 02N115W TO 03N122W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N122W TO 06N131W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 120 NM TO 210 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 134W AND 137W. ...DISCUSSION... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM 1030 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 36N136W THROUGH 27N136W TO 15N105W. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE HIGH FROM THE NW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE HIGH WHICH WILL THEN MERGE WITH STRONGER HIGH PRES WELL TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. TRADE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE AREA JUST N OF THE ITCZ FROM 08N TO 14N W OF 120W ACCORDING TO THE 0546 UTC ASCAT PASS. THESE TRADES AREA EXPECTED TO SHRINK IN AREA BY THE WEEKEND WHEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH REORGANIZES NORTHWARD AND THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. MID LEVEL ENERGY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WILL PINCH OFF FROM THE EASTWARD-MOVING MEAN TROUGH AND REFLECT A LOW AT THE SURFACE LATER TODAY. THIS LOW WILL DISINTEGRATE BY SAT AFTERNOON...LEAVING A TROUGH BEHIND OVER NE WATERS. THE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL EAT AWAY AT THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE EAST TO WEST PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THIS TROUGHING IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS OVER NORTHERN WATERS SEEN IN THE 0552 UTC ASCAT PASS AND THE 23 KT OBSERVATION FROM SHIP DG0H2 NEAR 29N126W AT 0600 UTC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST ON SAT WHEN THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO FRI AND WEAKEN AS IT TURNS NORTHEASTWARD INTO TEXAS SAT. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO SAT AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE BUILDING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES WILL SEND NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING SAT MORNING...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE BY SUNSET SAT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES OVER TEXAS SAT WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS BY SUN MORNING. THE INCREASED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRES SYSTEM AND TROUGHING OVER NW SOUTH AMERICA AND ALONG THE WEAK MONSOON TROUGH OVER SE FORECAST WATERS WILL ALLOW SUSTAINED FRESH NE WINDS TO PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BEGINNING OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. $$ SCHAUER