000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231510
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ AXIS 6N120W 5N130W 2N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 110 NM S OF AXIS FROM 124W-128W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 27N113W WITH A TROUGH FROM THE 
CIRCULATION TO 23N125W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NW OF THE 
TROUGH LOCATED NEAR 31N129W IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG 
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY/STABLE AIRMASS AT THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 115W. AN 80-100 KT 
UPPER JETSTREAM IS SE OF THE TROUGH FROM 21N113W ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARD THE BIG BEND 
OF TEXAS. THIS JET IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS N-CENTRAL MEXICO.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N108W 
TO 3N100W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
NEAR 3N86W WITH RIDGE FROM THE CIRCULATION ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALSO COVERS 
THE AREA N OF 10N E OF 100W...INCLUDING SE MEXICO AND MOST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE ARE N OF 10N W OF 110W.
PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE NE WINDS 20 KT N OF 25N 
W OF 125W AND FROM 9N-13N W OF 125W. LARGE NW SWELL CONTINUE TO 
PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION MOSTLY N OF 25N W OF 115W.

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE 
FORECAST TO DECREASE TO BELOW 20 KT BY EARLY FRI.

$$
DGS